Rainfall in monsoon season this year likely to be normal

Rainfall for the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June to September) in the country is most likely to be normal (96 percent to 104 percent of long period average (LPA). The monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 97 percent of the LPA with a model error of ±4 percent, according to Ministry of Earth Science. Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 100 percent of LPA over North-West India, 99 percent of LPA over Central India, 95 percent of LPA over South Peninsula and 93 percent of LPA over North-East India with a model error of ± 8 percent.
 
The monthly rainfall over the country is likely to be 101 percent of its LPA during July and 94 percent of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 percent. At present, the warm neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The MMCFS and other global climate models indicate weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during the middle of the monsoon season and continue to persist till the early part of the post-monsoon season, the statement said.

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The season rainfall for the country is likely to be 97 percent of the LPA with a model error of ±4 percent, the statement said. The LPA rainfall over the country for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. Earlier, India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted onset of the rainy session with the monsoon rains hitting the Kerala coast.