Monsoon to be normal in August-September: IMD

Monsoon rains would be normal in August and September, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today.  In the second Long Range Forecast for rainfall during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season, the IMD said the scenario realised till the end of July suggested that distribution of rainfall was very good across the country except Bihar, Jharkhand and north-eastern states.  The favourable distribution of rainfall was expected to continue for the next two months, it said, raising hopes for agricultural operations during the kharif season. 

"The rainfall during August-2018 is likely to be 96 plus/minus 9 pc of LPA and expected to be higher than predicted in June. Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely to be 95 per cent of LPA (Long Period Average ) with a model error of plus or minus 8 pc," the IMD said.  Monsoon rain is considered normal in the range of 96-104 per cent of the LPA. The 90-96 pc of the LPA range is considered "below normal".

However, IMD Additional Director General M Mohapatra said for August-September period the normal limit was 94-106 per cent of the LPA.  This was unusual, said a former senior IMD official, as this was akin to changing the goalpost.  "Deficient, below normal, normal, above normal and excess are five parameters to define the outcome of the monsoon. Rainfall under between 90-96 pc of the LPA is considered as below normal while 96-104 pc of rainfall is considered as normal. So, it would not be right put 94-106 pc of LPA under the normal monsoon category," the official added.
 

Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, downgraded its forecast for this year's monsoon, stating that the country might receive below normal rainfall, citing the continuing warming of the sea surface in the Pacific Ocean.  The warming of the seas surface indicates towards an evolving El Nino, a natural process that inversely affects the intensity of monsoon winds in the subcontinent. In its initial forecast in April, Skymet said the country would receive 100 per cent of the LPA, which falls under "normal" category. 

In its fresh forecast, it added that August may end with 88 of LPA and September could perform a shade better and end with an LPA of 93 per cent.  June recorded a rainfall of 155.3 mm in comparison to the normal rainfall limit of 163.3 mm, 95 per cent of the LPA while July received 272.4 mm rainfall even as the normal rainfall limit was 289.2 mm, which was 94 per cent of the LPA.  On May 30, the IMD had predicted 101 per cent of the LPA for July.