U.S. elections 2020 With Anil Singhvi: As Donald Trump and Joe Biden slug it out, Ajay Bagga decodes who may win

Stock market closed on Friday with mild gains. While Nifty closed 0.3% up at 11930, Sensex closed 0.3% up at 40685. Now, there are a number of factors that impact the stock market, from foreign to domestic, and keeping this in mind, one of the biggest issues live currently is the US election in which President Donald Trump is facing rival Joe Biden. Who wins the election will certainly impact stock market globally. Considering this, Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi and Market Expert Ajay Bagga look at the process of US election and decode its likely impact on India.

आखिरी बहस का विजेता कौन, ट्रंप या बाइडेन?

किस मुद्दे पर कौन रहा हावी?

आखिरी बहस का बाजार पर कैसा असर?

मार्केट एक्सपर्ट अजय बग्गा का सटीक एनालिसिस

देखिए पूरा वीडियो यहां- https://t.co/oPI14TCah8#ZBizExclusive #USElection2020 #Debates2020 @AnilSinghvi_ @Ajay_Bagga pic.twitter.com/sM2yZNmiQ3

— Zee Business (@ZeeBusiness) October 23, 2020

Ajay Bagga said that the debate between President Trump and Biden was indeed good. Many issues were being highlighted in the debate. Joe Biden was already leading by 8% going into yesterday's debate, and so, he was just playing for a draw. What is more, he was quite successful in ensuring the debate ended in a draw. Ajay Bagga, in fact, says that Joe Biden was the clear winner. 
However, he added that it is difficult to say what is going to happen next as voting from key 5 or 6 states will eventually decide the outcome of the election. So, even though Joe Biden is ahead in popular votes, things may change. For instance, in last election, Hilary Clinton was once ahead by 30 lakh votes, but since she didn’t get enough votes from Florida, she didn't win and so, failed to become the US President.
Bagga highlighted that since 1964, it has been observed that the person who wins Florida becomes the President. Biden is leading in Florida by 3% and margin of error i.e. polls operating error could be around 4%. So, it is difficult to say at this stage with certainty who is going to win. Nevertheless, 

Bagga says he believes that Biden is going to win. 4.7 cr votes have already been submitted by now, to ensure that people don’t queue up to vote on the same day and 1-month time has been given to citizens to vote. Voting centers have been opened in various states so people can go and vote. Also, many people have voted via mail and absentees ballot.  Out of 15 cr votes, one-third votes have already been done so far. 

Biden so far has been leading with the voting done till now. Out of the nearly 5 crore votes, 2.1 cr votes have been counted so far indicating Biden leads by 51%. Voting in the U.S. is registered unlike India where people are scared to say whether they are voting for BJP or Congress. 
Actual figures are not out as yet, Bagga revealed. One professor from University of Florida has been putting all these details on the website helping people understand the counting process and details of who is leading.
Also, Ajay Bagga said that during the last elections when Hilary Clinton was candidate in 2016, 20% of the people were sitting on the fence (not sure whom to vote for), however, this time the situation is more polarized; only 11% of people are fence sitters.  Among those who have voted till date, 25% votes are from the independents, they are neither Democrats nor Republicans. However, one thing is certain there are not enough fence sitters this time unlike in 2016.

Ajay Bagga thinks one key factor to be discussed is Mishandling of Covid situation. It is indeed a very big issue because of which Biden is getting a lot of support and he is leading over Trump by 10 to 12%. 2.2 lk people have lost their lives in the U.S. due to mishandling of Covid situation. However, Trump is a clear winner when economic issues are being taken into consideration but from Covid handling issues, Biden is the winner. 

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The takeaway for investors from all this data crunching is that stock market will remain extremely volatile, until clarity emerges about the US elections.