Monsoon may take month-and-a-half to cover rest of India, says Sathi Devi, IMD

Dr Sathi Devi, Scientist and head of National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC), in an exclusive talk with Zee Business's Suman Agrawal said that the arrival of monsoon rains was declared only after measuring the parameters over defined guidelines. She added the conditions are favourable and the monsoon has advanced to some parts of Tamil Nadu. And in next 48 hours, it will advance in some parts of coastal Karnataka and its southern interior regions. Edited excerpts from the interview:

Q: Southwest Monsoon has struck Kerala today. Can you tell us by when it will cover rest of the country?

A: Today, the onset of monsoon in Kerala was declared after seeing the favourable conditions, but we can't provide any forecast for the other regions of the country. Earlier in our forecast, we said that monsoon will reach Kerala on May 29, by keeping a margin of + and - 4 days, which means that it has reached 3 days in advance of the normal date that is June 1. About when it will reach other parts of India, then I can just say that it generally covers the country in one and a half months after striking in Kerala. Reaching early in Kerala doesn't mean that it will reach early elsewhere. It may be delayed because the spread depends on the strength of the wind and the rainfall continuity. 

Q: IMD, in its conference earlier in the month, said there will be a normal monsoon this year. It was said that some regions will be receiving heavy rain. Can you tell about the areas of states that can receive greater amounts of rain?

A: Actually, we provide a forecast for the whole country, which is going to be normal this year. We are not engaged in providing forecasts for a specific region or small areas. We give the activity of monsoon over the country as a whole and for the four homogenous areas. But we will be issuing the second update of the monsoon that will talk about its condition across India. 

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Q: By when the second update of monsoon will be made?

A: The second update will be released in the second or third week of June. And along with that, we will be giving the rainfall forecast for four homogeneous regions of the country, named Peninsula India, which will be talking about the monsoon status in four regions of the country. 

Q: Thunderstorms have caused huge losses to the country over past few days. Is there any warnings related to thunderstorms in coming days?

A: Thunderstorms are caused due to the presence of moisture and heating conditions in the region and we have issued warnings of small thunderstorm in Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Chandigarh, but these storms will not be severe like the thunderstorms that struck India earlier in the month.