A Black Tuesday? Urjit Patel exits, Assembly Election results! Can NDA govt save Sensex, Nifty?

Nothing seem to boost Indian market today, considering a host of action that took place in previous days. While everyone is sitting with bated breath to who will be elected in the assembly election held in five states, as the outcome will be annouonced today. Just a day ahead of the election a blow was sent out for both investors and market, as RBI governor Urjit Patel has submitted his resignation from his post. Hence, nothing seems optimistic in trading in Dalal Street today. It was already witnessed on Monday, that investors are having very little faith in Indian equities. BSE Sensex cracked below the 35,000 mark to close at 34,959.72. The broader NSE Nifty fell 205.25 points, or 1.92 per cent, to 10,488.45.

The benchmark Sensex plummeted 714 points as investors panicked over exit polls suggesting the Congress is giving a tough fight to the ruling BJP in state elections. The bruised rupee and weak global cues also further dampened sentiment. 

Coming back to today's trading session, one can hope it would be a black Tuesday. Why? Let's find out.

Over the recent months and weeks, there has been an ongoing battle with Urjit Patel taking a strong stand underlining importance of RBI independence from the Executive. No RBI governor has quit before their tenure has completed. 

This step by Urjit Patel nevertheless comes as a shock as this would be the shortest tenure of an RBI governor. Although Patel says his exit is due to personal reasons, but one could not help but think whether it is because of the ongoing fight with the government. Currently, both RBI and government are engaged in a very public spat, where the central bank's independence has been in question. 

Talking  about Urjit Patel's exit, Moody's Investor Services stated that, the independence of a country's central bank is an important consideration while assessing a country's institutional strength and any attempt by the government to curtail it would be credit negative.

This itself comes as a red flag for the BJP Party, because many citizens were questioning the way RBI governors first Raghuram Rajan and Urjit Patel has exited from their post. 

As for election results will be announced for five states namely Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. 

To NDA government's horror, analysts are not hoping a win-win situation. 

Know what experts believe:

#UrjitPatelresigns | 5 राज्यों के चुनावों के नतीजों के बीच #RBI गवर्नर का इस्तीफा, कितना पचा पाएगा बाज़ार या होगा धड़ाम, समझिए अनिल सिंघवी से।#UrjitPatelQuits #UrjitStepsDown #RBIGovernorResigns @AnilSinghviZEE @deepaliranaa pic.twitter.com/kj0gbekMNT

— Zee Business (@ZeeBusiness) December 11, 2018

In CLSA's view, Anti-incumbency can weigh against the BJP in states. 

Analysts at CLSA added,"The average of six exit polls after the state elections suggests that the Congress is likely to wrestle away the state of Rajasthan from the BJP. The states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to be a close fight between the BJP and Congress, which is a negative,as the market was expecting the BJP to retain both these states. But the exit polls themselves have a wide variation and hence the final result on 11 December can be different from the average."

They added, "Also, which way the BSP aligns in these elections will be a pre-cursor for national alignment as well. If the BJP ends up losing two of these three states, it will be a negative for market sentiment. On the other hand, a look at the manifestos of both the national parties for these states suggest that farmers’ demands and jobs are going to be the top-two issues for the 2019 elections and farm loan waivers and other sops to farmers will take centre-stage."

Going ahead, even global markets will have an impact on domestic front in today's trading session. 

According to Reuters report, a gauge of global equities stumbled on Monday, as losses in Europe and Asia extended to Wall Street on new signs world economic growth was being curbed by the U.S.-China trade spat, but was off early lows as U.S. stocks turned positive.

Reportedly, confusion stemming from British Prime Minister Theresa May`s abrupt decision on Monday to delay a vote on her Brexit deal weighed heavily on European shares. 

From the above it can be said investors brace yourself for a Black Tuesday.!