Exim Bank projects India's merchandise exports to fall to $111.7 billion

The Export Import (Exim) Bank India on Monday said the country's merchandise exports are set to fall to $111.7 billion for the April-June period amid continuing global volatilities. The country had reported overall merchandise exports at $116.7 billion in the year-ago period, as per official data.

"India's exports could be shadowed by a continued slowdown in select major trade partners including advanced economies, global financial sector stress, high inflationary pressures leading to tighter global monetary and financial conditions, and continued uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine conflict," the Exim Bank said.

The bank said the non-oil exports are forecast to amount to $86.6 billion in the first quarter of the new fiscal year.

It said exports have displayed resilience amidst a challenging global economic situation, plagued by supply chain disruptions and geo-political tensions, and have consistently remained above $100 billion for seven consecutive quarters since Q2 FY22.

The city-headquartered policy bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India's exports on a quarterly basis.

The ELI gauges the outlook for the country's exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country, it said.