Is inflation a key election issue in the Gujarat assembly elections 2022 and will it influence the choice of voters in the state? Experts agree that inflation is an issue in these polls, but it may not overwhelmingly shape Gujarati voters’ electoral choices.

For starters, the average inflation rate in Gujarat hovered around 5 per cent before the 2017 assembly polls. Subsequently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government was able to bring it down to 2.6 percent in 2017-18. 

The bigger challenge, however, is the disparity between rural and urban inflation in Gujarat, which did affect voter choices. 

In the state assembly election 2017, BJP failed to grab as many seats in rural Gujarat as it could in the 2012 election. The voters from rural Gujarat seemed to prefer Congress, although, the saffron party managed to come to power with breakthrough support from the voters in the urban centers. In 2017, BJP lost 14 rural seats. On the other hand, the total number of seats bagged by Congress touched 77, which was previously less than 60 in 2012. 

Can inflation affect the voting pattern?

Price rise and inflation used to be election issues and key determinants in determining the outcome of several state elections and the general elections in 2014. However, after the rise of the BJP, price rise has ceased to be on the list of prominent issues on which the electorate form their voting intentions, believe several political analysts and economists. 

Inflation may cause anxiety among the Gujarati voters but it will not be a major contributing factor in deciding the election results,” said Praveen Rai, Political Analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. 

Why is inflation a less concern for the election outcome?

Despite the inflation touching an all-time high in the state, political analysts suggest that it will hardly impact the voters’ choice of electing their leaders. But the question lies in why the saffron party has been able to gain the voters’ confidence despite rising inflation over the years.

One of the major factors behind the BJP’s success is the political structure of the state, say experts.“Economic concern is one of the primary concerns when voters think about whom to vote for, but there are other factors that may bring down the impact of inflation on voters. Congress is not investing the kind of energy that they did in 2017,” said Rahul Verma, a political analyst from the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), who has done extensive research on voting behavior. 

With Congress and AAP competing this time, BJP will get an advantage. So with growing economic concerns, some votes may divert to either of the parties but that would hardly affect BJP being the winner. 
The rising CPI in Gujarat could have been a cause of major concern and diluted the magnitude of BJP victory, but vote splitting between the demoralized Congress and recharged AAP will provide election traction to the BJP, asserted the experts. “Gujarat being the home turf of Modi will once again be mesmerized by his political aura and support his 'Gujarat Model of Development' to reach commanding heights in the country,” added Rai. 

Alongside, BJP has been able to bring down the inflation in the state last time immediately after they were re-elected in 2017. Thus, there is a level of trust instilled in the minds of people that the saffron party can take measures to bring down inflation. 

“Even if people know that the government is not doing enough to bring inflation down, they are also not sure whether the opposition would be better in solving the issues,” said Verma.