Gold, Rupee and Markets II Details explained by ICICI Securities

Gold prices started Monday’s trade on a strong note by opening higher and prices consolidated for most of the session in the range of Rs 48700- Rs 48900 levels. Prices took support in the last session on the prospect of extended U.S. fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policies, although bullion held close to the 1-1/2 month low hit earlier as the dollar extended gains. Therefore, ICICI Securities expect Gold prices to remain in the range of Rs 48600- Rs 49300 levels for the short term.

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has recently unveiled his $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal. Interestingly, this announcement did not put any pressure on the U.S. dollar. The dollar-rupee January contract on the NSE was at Rs 73.32 in the last session. The open interest increased almost 15% in the February series while marginal decline was seen in January series contracts.

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Equity benchmarks started the week on a subdued note tracking muted global cues. The Nifty ended the Monday’s session at 14281, down 152 points or 1.1%. Market breadth remained in favor of declines with A/D ratio of 1:3.8. Sectorally, all major indices ended in red weighed metal, pharma, and auto sector.
 
Technical Outlook:
 
The daily price action formed a bear candle carrying lower high-low, indicating extended breather after last three weeks sharp rally of 12% (13131-14653) that hauled weekly stochastic oscillator in the overbought territory (which was placed at 93 in Friday’s session)
 
Going ahead, the brief consolidation from here on would make the market healthy and eventually help index to form strong higher base formation in the vicinity of the key support threshold of the 14000-13800 range ahead of key major events of the Union Budget. Hence, any dip from here on should be capitalized as an incremental buying opportunity as our broader view of Nifty heading towards 14900 by the end of January is still intact. Meanwhile, 14500 would act as immediate resistance.
 
ICICI Securities believes the stock specific activity would remain in focus as markets proceed with the Q3 FY21 result season. Further, the key index components, like IT, consumption, auto and infra have maintained their robust price structure and are expected to lead the next leg of the rally towards 14900.
 
 Broader market indices have breached their last week’s low and formed a lower high-low on the weekly chart, indicating a pause in upward momentum after a sharp rally in the past three weeks sharp rally. Key point to highlight is that the Nifty midcap index has surged to new life-time highs, whereas the small cap index is still 25% away from its all time high of 9657. Thus, we expect small caps to witness catch up activity within the broader market space