Dhanteras Gold Rush: Last year’s buyers enjoy 30% return as analysts predict more gains by 2024

With Dhanteras approaching, gold investors have been celebrating a strong year for the precious metal, which has delivered an impressive thirty per cent return over the past twelve months.

As of October 25, gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) closed at Rs 78,532 per 10 grams, showcasing a continued upward trend fueled by global economic and geopolitical factors.

Factors pushing gold's rally

Gold's performance has remained resilient this year, thanks to key factors driving demand. First, persistent geopolitical tensions, particularly involving conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war, have led to a flight to safe-haven assets. As a traditional store of value, gold often attracts investors during uncertain times, helping push prices up. Additionally, economic policy shifts, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, have also bolstered gold's appeal. Lower interest rates typically weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold more attractive for global investors.

Moreover, the ongoing trend of de-dollarization—where countries diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar—has increased central bank purchases of gold, further fueling demand and prices. This trend reflects a shift in global financial stability, enhancing gold's stature as a preferred asset.

Predictions for the year ahead

Looking forward, analysts are optimistic about gold’s performance, with some forecasting an additional 10 to 11 per cent upside by the next Dhanteras. Key support levels on MCX stand at Rs 55,500, while international gold has maintained a solid foundation at $1,810 per troy ounce. Both levels highlight the metal's stability in the face of macroeconomic headwinds. On the domestic front, predictions point to gold potentially crossing Rs 87,000 per 10 grams in the coming year, as investor demand is likely to remain robust.

For investors, gold has offered consistent returns, with a twenty-four per cent surge this year alone. Additionally, the five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for gold is around fifteen per cent, underscoring its resilience across economic cycles. Silver, too, has delivered strong returns of thirty-five per cent over the past year, benefiting from both its safe-haven and industrial demand.

As Dhanteras arrives, gold remains a top choice for Indian households, and with its solid track record, the yellow metal continues to appeal to both long-term and short-term investors seeking portfolio stability and growth. The traditional asset’s enduring performance has outpaced most other investment options this year, positioning it as a favoured hedge amidst global uncertainties.