Top triggers to watch out for when Sensex, Nifty resume trading on Tuesday

Indian frontline indices S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 will resume trading on Tuesday amid a host of global and local factors. Zee Business has collated key triggers that are likely to impact movement in stock markets.

Monday Market Movement

Indian frontline indices S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 began the week on a negative note. While the 30-stock Sensex ended the session at 60,691.54, down by 311.03 points or 0.51 per cent, the broader market Nifty50 settled down by 99.60 points or 0.56 per cent at 17,844.60. Banking gauge Nifty Bank finished at 40,701.70, down by 430 points or over 1 per cent. Bandhan Bank was the sole gainer in the 12-share pack.

In the 50-share Nifty50, 20 stocks advanced while remaining 30 declined. The top gainers were Divi's Laboratories, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Power Grid and Hindalco Industries while the top losers were Adani Enterprises, Cipla, Britannia Industries, BPCL and UPL.

Here are key triggers:

1) US Markets

US markets are shut today on account of Presidents day. When Indian markets resume trading on Tuesday they will take cues from movement in Dow Futures and SGX Nifty on Nifty. While the former was trading at 33,718.30, down by 108.40 points or 0.32 per cent, the Singapore listed SGX Nifty, an early indicator of movement in Nifty50 was trading at 17,869, up by 4 pints or 0.02 per cent at the time of filing the story.

2) Rupee Vs Dollar: The rupee appreciated by 9 paise to close at 82.73 against the US dollar on Monday, as the American currency retreated from its six week high levels in the global markets.
Forex traders said a muted trend in domestic equities and foreign fund outflows weighed on investor sentiments and restricted the appreciation bias. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 82.69 against the American currency and finally settled at 82.73 against the greenback, registering a gain of 9 paise over its previous close of 82.82.

During the trading session, the rupee touched a high of 82.62 and a low of 82.74 against the dollar. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.04 per cent to 103.90. "Rupee traded strong near 82.75 as dollar index traded below USD 104 guiding rupee strength. Asian currencies were trading strong on the back of weakness in the dollar," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities. Trivedi further noted that the US Fed's minutes update will be keenly watched this week for further trend. PTI

3) FII / DII Action: Foreign institutional invetors were net sellers at Rs 158.95 crore, domestic institutional investors were net buyers of Indian equities at Rs 86.23 crore.

4) Stocks in Ban: No securities are under ban for trading on 21 February, Tuesday. 

5) US President Joe Biden's Visit to Ukraine: Even as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war will be observing its first anniversary, US President Joe Biden's visit to the war-torn country is being watched closely by all including global stock markets. The developments around this visit could act as triggers in market movement.    

6) Anil Singhvi Strategy on Nifty and Bank Nifty: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi said that our own triggers will hold the key. He said that it will become difficult for Nifty and Sensex to hold on if FII selling continues. Nifty will find support at 17,725-17,775 while resistance at 17,950-18,000. As for Bank Nifty, closing below 41,000 is a cause of concern. It will have support at 40,200-40,350 while resistance at 41,200-41,300 is the banking gauge breaches 41,000 mark, Singhvi said.

7) Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures advanced 1.05 per cent to USD 83.87 per barrel. Movement of USD will remain crucial as to how critical commodities trade on Tuesday. 

Expert Take       

"The Nifty witnessed a marginal gap up opening near 17,980 levels and making an intraday high at 18,004, but couldn’t hold on to its initial buying momentum and drifted lower throughout the day in a lower high lower low formation and closed at 17,844.60 with a loss of 0.54%.

Prices are still hovering near their breakout levels but have closed marginally below their 9 & 21 EMA on the daily chart. The momentum oscillator RSI (14) is reading between 30 - 55 levels for the past two months and finding a strong overhead resistance near 55 levels.

In the coming days, 17,700 will be sacrosanct support for the index, while 18,100 could be an immediate hurdle. A break above 18,100 levels will infuse buying towards 18,250 levels. Similarly, a break below 17,700 will open the gate for 17,450 levels on the lower side." -- Rohan Patil, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities

"The Nifty opened on a flat note and as the day progressed the selling pressure intensified and the Nifty closed in the negative down ~100 points for the day. On the daily charts, the Nifty has come back within the downward sloping channel from which it broke during the last week. On the hourly charts we can observe that the Nifty has closed below the key hourly moving averages which is a sign of weakness in the short term. Prices are moving along the hourly lower Bollinger band which is expanding indicating that the fall is likely to continue. Thus, considering the above parameters we change our short-term outlook on the Nifty to sideways. The range of consolidation is likely to be 18150 – 17650. In terms of levels, 17920 – 17970 shall act as immediate hurdle one while on the downside the 17650 – 17600 which convinces with the 61.82% fibonacci retracement level shall act as a crucial support to watch out for form short term perspective." -- Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)