Stock Market Outlook 2023: Nifty to hit 19,500, Sensex 64,500, forecasts Emkay Global Financial

Stock Market Outlook 2023: Integrated securities firm Emkay Global Financial has predicted that BSE Sensex can attain 64,500 level and NSE Nifty50 19,500 by December 2023. 

The report said that given the current circumstances, Nifty will attain a level of 19,500 and barring any changes in the global macroeconomic and geo-political set up BSE Sensex will attain 64,500 which is 7-8 per cent increase from the current levels.

“Given the current scenario we see Nifty-50 fair value of around 19,500 by end Calendar Year 2023; we expect aggregate profit growth of Nifty-50 to be fairly resilient at around 15 per cent in CY23,” Sanjay Chawla, head and institutional researcher at Emkay Global Financial Services, said.

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The report stated that in CY23, the increase in Nifty50 Profit After Tax (PAT) according to the Emkay report will be led by Banks, Auto Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), ancillaries, Oil & Gas and IT companies. 

Further the report said that the movement of Dollar, the depth and amplitude of possible slowdown/recession, and the timing of Fed’s pivot will be the key factors that will affect the markets in CY23.

“The movement of the dollar index continues to be a cause of concern due to the sheer impact it has on multiple things,” said Nirav Sheth, CEO, Institutional Equities, Emkay Global Financial Services.

Emkay Global Financial believes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will follow the Fed’s moves. It further states that the market participants will closely and keenly watch the RBI’s move of which it stays on pause and eventually starts cutting rates.

“We expect a further instalment of rate hike by the US Fed and the RBI thereby strengthening the respective currencies. We expect RBI to go on a long pause by 2QCY23,” said Nirav Sheth.

According to Sanjay Chawla, a capex intensive budget by the government may spur investment; however global and domestic growth uncertainties may act as an impediment.

He added higher-for-longer interest rates, and a sudden rise in Brent crude oil prices are potential challenges for the market in the next 6-12 months.

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