8 triggers that could impact movement when Sensex, Nifty resume trading today

Stock Market on Friday, 23 February: Domestic stock markets have been on weak turf over the week closing negative on four occasions. When frontline indices S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty resume trading on Friday, they will be impacted by a host of local and global triggers. Zee Business has collated a list of factors that may have a bearing on the movement when markets reopen tomorrow. 

Thursday Market Recap: Selling pressure in markets continued for the fourth straight session on Thursday as frontline indices S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 ended the February series in the red. While Sensex closed the day at 59,605.80, down by 139.18 points or 0.23 per cent, the broader market Nifty50 settled at 17,511.25, down by 43.05 points or 0.25 per cent. Banking gauge Nifty Bank mnaged a flat ending at 40,001.55, up by 5.65 points or 0.01 per cent. Nine stocks advanced in the 12-share index.

In the 50-stock Nifty50, 24 stocks gained. The top gainers were Hindalco Industries, Coal India, Axis Bank, JSW Steel and Tata Motors while top losers were Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Titan, Divi's Laboratories and Indusind Bank. 

India VIX, a measure of volatility in Nifty ended at 15.08, down by 3.28 per cent.

Top Triggers for Friday

1) US Markets: Indian markets will take cues from Thursday closing of Wall Street's benchmark indices - Dow 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. They will also track movement of Dow 30 futures and Singapore-listed SGX Niftyfutures on Friday. The latter is an early indicator of movement in Nifty50. 

At the time of filing this story, Dow 30 was trading at 33,047.20, marginally up by 2.14 points or 0.01 per cent while S&P 500 was up by 6.34 points or 0.16 per cent at 3,997.39. Nasdaq Composite was trading at 11,512.20, higher by 5.16 points or 0.04 per cent. Dow Futures were trading at 33,044.40, down by 0.70 points. Meanwhile, SGX Nifty was trading at 17,596, down by 84 points or 0.48 per cent.

 Source: Comex

2) Rupee Vs Dollar: The rupee appreciated by 15 paise to close at 82.73 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, tracking its regional peers and lower crude oil prices, PTI reported. Forex traders said a muted trend in domestic equities and foreign fund outflows weighed on investor sentiments and restricted the appreciation bias. During the trading session, the rupee touched a high of 82.71 and a low of 82.79 against the dollar, the report said.

"The Indian rupee appreciated after two days of downtick on stronger regional peers and lower crude oil prices. After last night's February FOMC minutes, the US yields strengthen while the dollar has been quite muted," said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. "In the near-term, we believe spot USDINR to consolidate between 82.50 to 83 but the directional trend remains bullish as long as it holds 81.70," Parmar added. 

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.02 per cent to 104.61.

3) Stocks in News: Expect action in certain stocks based on news. One such stock is Infosys which has collabrated with Microsoft to drive industry adoption of cloud; Adani Group stocks will be on news based on developments; ONGC to invest USD 2 billion in Mumbai offshore to raise oil, gas output. 

4)  FII / DII Action: Foreign institutional investors were net sellers of Indian equities on Thursday at Rs 1,417.24 crore while the domestic institutional investors were net buyers at Rs 1586.06 crore. 

5) Stocks in Ban: Securities in ban for trade on 23 February 2023: Vodafone Idea.

6) March Series: Tomorrow will be the beginning on the March series and markets will enter the new series on a lighter note. There will be lesser rollover of index and stock futures and options positions of   relatively weaker traders, Zee Business Managing Editor said. This would apply to FIIs as well, he added.  

7) Anil Singhvi Strategy on Nifty, Bank Nifty: Nifty will find support at 17,350-17,450 which will act as a strong support zone while the resistance will be at 17,650-17,750. Meanwhile, for Bank Nifty support will be at 39,400-39,600 while resistance will be at 40,500-40-600.  

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8) Commodity Markets: Prices of key commodities like Gold, Silver and oil will depend on how rupee moves against the greenback. At the time of filing the story, April Gold futures were trading at Rs 5,5578 per 10 gram and were down by Rs 505 or 0.90 per cent. Meanwhile, March Silver futures were trading at Rs 64,382 per kg, down by Rs 1056 or 1.61 per cent. 

 Source: NSE 

Expert Takes 

"The Nifty opened on a positive note, however as the day progressed it witnessed selling pressure and closed the day in the negative for the fifth consecutive day. On the daily charts we can observe that the Nifty has reached the daily lower Bollinger band and is also trading around a rising trendline support derived at by joining the previous two swing lows which makes a case for a pullback over the next few trading sessions. The hourly momentum indicator has a positive crossover which is a buy signal. Thus, a bounce is likely however it is just a counter trend rally and the bounce is likely to face resistance around the 17665 – 17740 where resistance in the form of the key hourly moving averages are placed. Overall, the trend continues to be negative, and, on the downside, we expect the Nifty to target levels of 17300 from short term perspective." -- Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

"The market dropped for the fifth consecutive day, the longest losing streak since June 2022. The Sensex falls 139 points to 59,606, while the Nifty falls 43 points to 17,511. Nifty falls 2% to record the biggest fall in a series since September. The Nifty Bank has dropped 4% this series, the most since June. The top Nifty gainers were HINDALCO and COALINDIA, while the top losers were ASIANPAINT and LT.

NIFTY - The near-term technical structure is looking weak. 17450 is an immediate support level, and 17400 is the next support level. 17650 and 17800 will act as immediate resistance levels.

BANKNIFTY - The Banknifty structure is very weak, but 39600 is immediate support. We can expect further weakness below 39600, with targets of 39400 and 39200. On the upside, 40250/40500 is a critical hurdle." -- Pravesh Gour, Senior Research Analyst, Swastika Investmart

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)