Will recession hit Indian shores in six months? Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi decodes

Decoding the last six months of 2022 and giving an outlook as well as a view on the remaining six months, Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi said that the market may continue to be volatile and also likely to trade range-bound with a 10 per cent difference. 

In a special show – BetterHalf, the managing Editor mentioned that India may witness a slowdown but not a downturn. However, a technical recession in the US is possible. He added that the Indian economy may register a growth of 4-5% depending on the global scenario, possibly due to a slowdown.  

If the US economy continues to see negative economic growth in two consecutive quarters, it may enter into a technical recession, however, is considered an average period of 3-4 years, the US economy is mainly into a downturn and not recission, Singhvi said. 

This downturn is likely to improve in the US as well as in India if the commodity prices ease and crude oil softens and then the raising of rates and policy tightening may not require much, he added.  

साल 2022 के पिछले 6 महीनों में क्या बदला?
कौनसे 3 फैक्टर्स रहें अहम?

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According to Singhvi, the global central banks have become smart, and they know how to fight a recession and have displayed that in 2008 and in 2020 during covid.

Similarly, Singhvi said anything could happen in Europe, mainly because they are dependent on the whole world. 

In the last six months of 2022, the unexpected Russia-Ukraine crisis made things worse, as it pushed the inflation levels to a 40-year high and crude oil beyond $130 per barrel levels, Singhvi noted.  

The managing editor believes massive volatility in the market is unlikely in the remaining 6 months, as they will be driven by events, and he suggests participants take both sides view. He expects that the Nifty may trade between 14000-14500 at a lower level and 17000-17500 at a higher level.