Union Budget 2019, US-China trade talks to trigger markets next fortnight

The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty have not showed any decisive trend since the results of the general elections in May. While the factors like sharp rise in oil prices, forecast of a weak monsoon and concern of slowdown have held back investors from infusing investments. In the next fortnight markets is set to witness two major triggers. The US-China trade talks at the G-20 in Osaka, Japan, next week and the Union Budget to be tabled on July 5.

While the Indian investors are desperately awaiting a budget with plans to kick-start a slowing economy, traders globally expect a resolution between the two biggest economies entangled in an expensive trade war.

1. Union Budget 2019, US-China trade talks will decide the fate of the markets for the second half of the year.

2. During the week gone by, an escalation in trade tension sent the oil prices higher, which will continue to have a bearing on the market. 

3. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark rose sharply on Thursday after war like situation developed between Iran and the US after Iran shot down a US drone.

4. US President Donald Trump on Friday said he was in 'no hurry' to retaliate. Trump warned that the 'we were cocked and loaded to retaliate last night' but chose otherwise as its was "not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone".

5. Global financial markets fell over fear that a possible conflict would disrupt flows from the Middle East, which accounts for over 20 per cent of the world's oil output.

6. "Markets continued to correct for the third consecutive week. The Nifty ended with losses of 0.84 per cent W-o-W. Market breadth was negative in four out of the five trading sessions of the week," Deepak Jasani of HDFC Securities said.

7. It would be important to see what steps the government takes in the budget to boost the private investment and improve the economic activities said Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research.