Monsoon forecast: IMD may downgrade outlook

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) might downgrade its forecast for August and September, which could eventually mean lowering the prediction for the entire season.

"We may slightly downgrade the monsoon forecast for the season," a senior official said. 

This comes a day after Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, downgraded its forecast for this year's monsoon, stating that the country might receive below normal rainfall.

"Skymet Weather has updated the forecast for monsoon 2018 to 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA)," the Skymet said, citing that the sea surface warming was continuing in the Pacific Ocean and was indicating towards an evolving El Nino. 

Rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal. 

The weather agency, in its initial forceast in April, had said the country would receive 100 per cent of the LPA, which falls under "normal" category.

In its fresh forecast, the Skymet also added that August may end with 88 of LPA and September could perform a shade better and end with an LPA of 93 per cent.

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June recorded a rainfall of 155.3 mm in comparison to the normal rainfall limit of 163.3 mm, 95 per cent of the LPA while July received 272.4 mm rainfall while the normal rainfall limit was 289.2 mm, which was 94 per cent of the LPA. 

On May 30, the IMD had predicted 101 per cent of the LPA for July.