Monsoon, Budget to play key role for Indian markets this week — These stocks can be your best bet

Although delayed, the monsoon is here and heavy showers are taking place across various regions of India such Maharashtra, Odisha, Gujarat and more. The monsoon has definitely had a big negative impact on rail, road and air transportation. However, these were not the only ones as even Indian markets were quite volatile in June 2019, due to subdued monsoon. Experts have said that slower monsoon and lower-than normal rains have put pressure on markets. Notably, this week is set to be a very important moment for investors. On Monday, the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty kicked started the week on positive note. At around 1339 hours, Sensex was trading at 39,659.53 above by 264.89 points or 0.67%. The 31-scrip index has already touched an intraday high of 39,704.97. While, the Nifty 50 was above 67.50 points or 0.57% trading at 11,856.35. 

More spells of heavy rains are expected across India, and not only that, with 17th Lok Sabha session continuing and the Union Budget 2019 in the offing, both these things will play a major role about where investors will be placing their bets. Apart from this, global events and markets will have their own impact as well. The Union Budget 2019 will be announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on July 05, 2019. In the midst of all this uncertainty, it is advisable to find the right stock for investment. 

Talking about this week's market movement, Romesh Tiwari, head of Research, CapitalAim said, "The traders and investors are waiting for the lined-up events to pass before making any positional investment decision. The long awaited G-20 summit commenced today in Japan which is now a crucial as the world is looking forward to the U.S. and Chinese persistent meeting in the sideline of the summit where the two leaders would negotiate to resolve the trade war situation which would provide direction to world markets. The other important meeting in Japan on the sideline of the G20 Summit that would affect Indian markets is among Trump and PM Modi where they could discuss on the tariff issue and defense aspects."

"Also, the union budget of India is scheduled to be presented on 5th of July where it is expected that, govt. could take steps to boost economic growth. Other than these, slower progress of the monsoon and lower than normal rains till now is putting pressure on the Indian market," said Tiwari. 

On Nifty, Tiwari feels if the index sustains at over 11865-level above 20-day moving average on the daily chart, it could test levels of 11970 to 12040 levels, but if it does not sustain above this moving average, then a downward movement could be witnessed. 

On the international front, there would be OPEC Meetings and data of ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday and data on Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate on Friday.

These stocks can be good bet on exchanges, as per Tiwari. 

1. Axis Bank:

Axis bank is in a bullish trend since 25 June 2019 when it bounced from the support around 760 levels at the support of the trend line drawn from the low of 26 Oct 2018 on the daily chart. Now, it is sustaining above 20-day & 50-day moving averages on the daily chart and MACD has shown upward crossover on the same chart with RSI showing buy signal which is now placed at 59.79 levels.

Buy rating with a target price of Rs 845 is set. 

2. Ultra Tech Cement:

Ultra Tech Cement is consolidating around higher levels above the support of trend line drawn from the low of 15 Feb, 2019 and above 50-day moving averages on the daily chart and also above the falling the channel drawn from the high of 27-May, 2019 and low of 24-May, 2019. MACD on the same charts has shown an upward crossover on the same chart. 

Buy rating with a target price of Rs 4800 has been given.

3. Hindustan Unilever: 

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) has bounced from the support of 120-day moving average on the daily chart at the levels around 1745. Now, it is sustaining above 50-day and 120-day moving averages on the daily chart and MACD is heading to converge upward. Also, RSI is showing buy signal which is now placed at 50.68 levels on the daily chart.

Target price of Rs 1845 with Buy rating.