Low oil price, weak Chinese yuan to keep rupee in range next week

Gains from a low oil price would likely be offset by a weak Chinese yuan, restricting the Indian rupee in a range of 72.30-73.20 per US dollar next week, experts said on Sunday. Also, fund flows and global market movements are expected to dictate the rupee`s trajectory.

"The rupee is expected to be held in a range of 72.30-73.20 due to supportive oil prices on the one hand and a weak Yuan on the other," Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, told IANS.

"While lower crude oil prices will be supportive for the rupee, a weak Yuan is a negative. Hence, the rupee is expected to be in a range." According to Sajal Gupta, Edelweiss Securities` Head for Forex and Rates, the recent gains in equity indices have boosted expectations of capital inflows, helping the rupee higher.

A fall in crude oil prices has also supported the rupee. India imports about 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, and a spike in global prices fans inflation risks, pressuring the rupee.  The US Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates thrice so far this year, held the rates steady at its monetary policy review last week, but signalled it was on course for another hike in December. 

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Higher interest rates in the US have prompted foreign investors to pull out of emerging markets, including India, hurting the rupee. 

"The US Fed commentary was on expected lines for a December rate hike, while the RBI might intervene at various levels to recoup the reserves. These factors along with the upcoming RBI Board meeting might keep the rupee`s gains in check," Gupta told IANS. 

The domestic currency is seen in a range of 72.20-73.00 per USD with an upward bias next week, he said. Also, the NBFC commercial paper roll-overs remain a concern and can keep the markets a bit nervous, he added.

On Friday, the rupee settled at 72.49 per US dollar after logging a single-day gain of 51 paise. It had closed at 72.44 the previous week.  The rise in rupee was attributed to a significant decline in Brent crude oil price, which fell below the $70-a-barrel mark on Friday.

Provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought scrips worth Rs 157.79 crore in the week ended November 9.