Inflation woes likely to continue; analysts predict CPI to remain elevated in September

Inflation Rate In India 2022: After retail inflation jumped to 7 per cent in August from 6.71 per cent in July, analysts predicted that the woes will likely continue in September as they expect the consumer price index (CPI) to remain elevated on the increased food segment prices. 

Retail inflation cut short its three-month declining trend and inched up to 7 per cent in August mainly due to higher food prices. Food inflation stood at 7.62 per cent in August, a steep rise over 6.75 per cent recorded in July, according to official data released on Monday. The CPI-based inflation in August 2021 was 5.3 per cent.

The Ministry of Finance said that consumer price index (CPI) based inflation ‘recorded a moderate increase’, adding that it could be attributed to ‘both an adverse base effect and an increase in food and fuel prices - the transient components of CPI inflation.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, said that the CPI inflation print will likely rise slightly to 7.1 per cent in September. Besides food prices, the miscellaneous and housing segments also witnessed a marginal rise in inflation in August 2022, partly reflecting the strength of the recovery in the services sector, Nayar said while highlighting the reasons for the abrupt rise in inflation in the previous month.

“We expect inflation in Q2 to average around 7 per cent, slightly lower than RBI’s projection of 7.1 per cent. The arrival of Kharif harvest in October-November in markets could help pacify food inflation,” Rajani Sinha, chief economist, CARE Edge rating agency, said.

Nearly half of the CPI basket is accounted by food inflation which includes daily essentials like wheat, rice, and pulses which skyrocketed due to various factors like record heatwaves, erratic monsoon patterns etc, Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director – Ladderup Wealth Management said in his note.