Bihar election result 2020: For Narendra Modi, BJP win suggests political immunity from pandemic

Bihar election result 2020: The results are likely to strengthen the BJP’s standing in the state of Bihar, but are unlikely to change the overall Upper House composition. Beating exit poll predictions of a rout, the incumbent BJP led coalition appears set to retain power in Bihar, which will come as a big boost for PM Narendra Modi too. As it is the first state election since the pandemic and there has been the announcement of farm reforms, the win in Bihar indicates Prime Minister Modi remains popular and is likely to enhance the BJP’s standing in the state.

Nomura says they do not expect major changes in the composition of the Rajya Sabha (Upper House) as a consequence of this election, where the BJP and its allies remain shy of a majority. Initial leads and wins suggest that the incumbent coalition of the ruling party the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its local ally Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) are set to retain power in the Bihar state elections with a tally of 129 seats (leads + wins), above the simple majority of 122 (total seats=243).

The result is contrary to exit poll expectations that were predicting a clean sweep for the opposition coalition ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (Grand Alliance) comprising the local heavyweight, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Indian National Congress (INC) and a smattering of left parties. Instead, the results so far suggest the Grand Alliance will secure only 103 seats, 19 seats short of a majority. The erstwhile ally of the BJP, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) that decided to part ways for the elections looks to secure only one seat so far.

Implications: BJP defies expectations to mobilise its position

This was the first state election held since the pandemic and was widely regarded as a referendum on the government’s handling of the health crisis, as well as the ability beat potential anti-incumbency concerns around the administration of the incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who belongs to the coalition partner, JD(U). Bihar faced a massive influx of reverse migration of labourers after lockdown who then struggled to get employment in their hometowns.

The election also came against the backdrop of the central government introducing agricultural reforms, which were met by farmer protests in some parts of the country. Despite these factors, the win secured by the BJP coalition will indicate public approval of Prime Minister Modi, and there have been expectations that the BJP may consider fielding its own Chief Minister candidate once the results are finalised. However, the poor showing of the BJP’s ally, JD(U), which has seen its seat tally drop to 48 (leads + wins) from 68, suggests anti-incumbency is at play and the results are likely to strengthen the BJP’s standing in the state of Bihar

Rajya Sabha arithmetic likely to remain stable:

See Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:

The results are unlikely to majorly change the overall composition of the Rajya Sabha (Upper House), where at 118 seats, the NDA remains shy of the majority of 123 (total=245; there are three vacant seats currently, so the effective majority is 121). The BJP’s Rajya Sabha tally recently increased from 86 to 92 to reflect its past wins in the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand elections.

Bihar has a representation of 16 seats in the Rajya Sabha, of which two are currently vacant. Of the remaining 14, the NDA is already in the lead with eight seats, while the INC-RJD combined have six seats. Typically, the seat sharing of parties in the Rajya Sabha is similarly proportioned to the composition of the respective state legislative assemblies. The current win margin of the NDA suggests that it will secure around 53% of the state legislature which translates into a little over eight Rajya Sabha seats similar to the current situation. Hence we do not believe there are any major implications for the Rajya Sabha arithmetic as a consequence of this election