What to expect in 2024: Fed pivot, cooling inflation, easing growth
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Global growth will likely slow this year, but a dovish tilt in the Federal Reserve's stance has raised hopes for the U.S. economy and brightened the outlook for riskier assets, according to big banks.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England sticking to their higher-for-longer rates stance, however, has blurred expectations for Europe.
Following are forecasts from some major banks and peers on economic growth, inflation, Fed policy and how they expect certain asset classes to perform.
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 |
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GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.60% | 2.30% | 4.80% | 0.90% | 0.50% | 6.30% |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.80% | 1.90% | 4.20% | 0.50% | -0.10% | 6.40% |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.60% | 1.10% | 4.40% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 6.20% |
| Barclays | 2.60% | 1.20% | 4.40% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 6.20% |
| J.P.Morgan | 2.20% | 1.60% | 4.90% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 5.70% |
| BofA Global Research | 2.80% | 1.40% | 4.80% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 5.70% |
| Deutsche Bank | 2.40% | 0.60% | 4.70% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 6.00% |
| Citigroup | 1.90% | 1.10% | 4.60% | -0.20% | -0.30% | 5.70% |
| HSBC | 2.40% | 1.70% | 4.90% | 0.50% | 0.60% | 6.00% |
The latest data showed that in the 12 months through December, U.S. consumer prices edged 3.4% higher after increasing 3.1% in November, tempering expectations of an interest rate cut in March. The pace of price rises, however, has slowed from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The Fed targets an inflation rate of 2%.
The U.S. central bank's policy rate currently stands in the 5.25%-5.50% range after 525 basis points of hike since March 2022. Rate cuts are seen coming as early as March.
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