India's working-age population to rise until 2040 amid declines in China and Japan: ADB Report

India's share of working-age individuals is projected to rise until 2040 and maintain a substantial workforce until almost 2050, while countries such as the People's Republic of China and Japan face declining working-age populations, according to Asian Development Bank report.

Statista data highlights that India's working-age population made up over 60% of its total population in 2011 and is expected to grow until 2031. But by 2036, this percentage will slightly decline from 65.1% in 2031 to 64.9% in 2036.

This demographic trend underscores the importance of labour mobility and regional cooperation to address workforce imbalances and sustain economic growth across Asia and the Pacific.

As per ADB, Asia and the Pacific can effectively manage their demographic deficits through proactive regional migration policies and human capital investment.

Over the past 50 years, many countries in the region have prospered by leveraging their demographic dividends, focusing on infrastructure investments such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications.
However, as demographic dividends turn to deficits, a shift in strategy is necessary. Countries must now prioritize investing in human capital and fostering greater labour mobility across the region to maintain economic stability.

UN data indicates that Asia has passed its peak demographic dividend. The absolute number of working-age individuals in several countries is set to decrease significantly, further stressing the need for adaptive policies.

Countries in Asia and the Pacific must adapt by implementing policies that make the most of their remaining workforce. This includes increasing labour force participation, especially among women, and enhancing access to higher education for talented students regardless of socioeconomic background.

More crucially, a regional approach to migration can help balance workforce deficits and surpluses. Flexible migration policies within the region can exploit demographic differences, providing job opportunities for workers from demographic dividend countries and filling employment gaps in deficit countries.

This strategy would also strengthen trade and investment ties, foster innovation, and increase remittance flows. While out-migration from Asia and the Pacific is currently directed primarily toward the Gulf states, regional strategies akin to those adopted by the United Arab Emirates could provide more local job opportunities.

Regional cooperation through bodies such as ASEAN can facilitate this migration strategy by standardizing licensing and training requirements and establishing skills partnerships between destination and origin countries. Asia and the Pacific have matched population growth with productivity-enhancing investments in infrastructure.

Now, facing ageing populations, the region must pivot to investing equally in human capital and facilitating cross-border labour mobility.