Q1FY23 Preview: Pharmaceutical firms likely to deliver subdued performance in domestic market, says Nirmal Bang -

On account of a higher base, domestic brokerage firm Nirmal Bang expect most pharma names in the first quarter of the financial year 2022-23 to deliver a subdued performance in the domestic market on a Year-on-Year (YoY) basis.

The brokerage said that those with a larger chronic presence, like JB Chemicals, Sun Pharma and Lupin should be relatively much better off.

Natco Pharma would be the fastest growing company in our coverage universe in the US, led by gRevlimid, it said, adding that Sun Pharma’s US sales may grow in low single digits before it picks up meaningfully in Q2FY23.

Raw material inflation and higher freight costs may continue to affect performance, according to Nirmal Bang, adding that API sales, which were subdued in FY22 on account of high channel inventory, should start reviving.

Alembic Pharma: Alembic Pharma has seen ramp-up in volume and market share of its recent launch, gPerforomist, in the US, but it has lost market share in gTheophylline 300mg and 450mg. We expect to see a decline in overall sales in Q1FY23 due to a high US revenue base in Q4FY22, caused by certain one-off gains.

Aurobindo Pharma: We expect Aurobindo’s formulations business to remain flattish in Q1FY23, but expect to see further recovery in the ARV business. R&D spends have significantly risen for the company over the last few quarters, which should ease off. Aurobindo has launched multiple drugs in the US recently, which should start reflecting in its performance in Q2FY23.

Biocon: Average weekly revenue run-rate of Semglee grew by 17% in 1QFY23 over 4QFY22. Everolimus (10mg) has seen high single-digit growth in quarterly volume run-rate, but the drug has also seen incremental competition, which could have led to a price decline and more than offset the impact of higher volume.

Cipla: India business is expected to recover QoQ due to a seasonally weak quarter in 4QFY22, but there will be a decline on YoY basis due to a high base in 1QFY22 (Covid contribution). North America business should see low single-digit growth QoQ as we have not seen any important launch in 1QFY23. Earnings should recover on a QoQ basis.

Dishman Carbogen Amcis: Revenue is expected to remain flattish. CRAMS India business is likely to remain flat as the compliance woes persisted in 1QFY23 as well. The company was affected by multiple oneoffs in 4QFY22. EBITDA margin and earnings should see a recovery in 1QFY23.