Gold, silver rate (September 25): MCX gold hits new high of Rs 76,000/10 gm mirroring global trend; silver down at Rs 92,000/ kg

Gold, silver rate (September 25): Gold prices in Wednesday's trade (September 25) have hit new highs on the MCX mirroring gains internationally. Gold October futures after hitting a new high of Rs 76,000 per 10 gm were trading 0.23 per cent or Rs 172 higher at Rs 75,175 per 10 gm. Meanwhile, silver futures were trading with a cut of 0.42 per cent or Rs 388 at Rs 92,005 per kg.

In the spot market, gold price has been rallying to new highs for few sessions now and in today's trade scaled $2,670.52 per ounce, while at the last count it traded at $2,658.38 per ounce.

Gold price rallied to the $2,664-2,665 region yesterday, hitting yet another record high amid rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Dollar losses play as main tailwind for gold 

Importantly, dovish Fed expectations, along with Tuesday's disappointing US macro data, kept the US Dollar (USD) depressed near the YTD low set last week. This, to a larger extent, overshadows the latest optimism led by China's new stimulus measures and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Macro data in sight lifting gold prices to new all-time highs

Neha Qureshi, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst, Anand Rathi Commodities & Currencies maintained that the latest Conference Board consumer confidence report suggests households are noticing the jobs market is cooling quickly. Historically this has been a major warning signal that unemployment is going to rise. This report suggests a breach of 5 per cent  is possible before year-end, which would undoubtedly raise the odds of a second 50bp Fed rate cut.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the markets are currently pricing in over a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November. Adding to this, Tuesday's weaker US macro data weighed heavily on the US Dollar and dragged it back closer to the YTD low, lifting the non-yielding Gold price to a fresh all-time peak. 

Outlook cautious on gold for now as US PCE data in focus

Technically, gold remains in the overbought territory on the chart and investors may seem reluctant to place aggressive bets as more Fed officials are set to speak this week, including the Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Also this week, the focus will be on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which might influence expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path and determine the next leg of a directional move for the Gold price.

Trading strategy gold/ silver 

Qureshi has advised a buy on dip on gold at around Rs 75,000 for a target of Rs 75,500 per 10 gm, keeping a stop loss of Rs 74,700 per 10 gm, while for Silver (December) futures, the expert has advised a buy on around Rs 92,400 per kg to Rs 95,000 with a stop loss of Rs 91,000 per kg.​