Russia Ukraine war one year: What's prolonging the conflict?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is nearing the one-year mark. The West is now accusing China of supplying weapons to Russia to change the trajectory of the year-old war. 

A year into the war, Beijing now seems increasingly concerned that Russia - one of its closest allies - is teetering toward something that could approximate a loss in Ukraine. But Chinese cooperation on military supplies for Russia's war in Ukraine would be a significant sign of Beijing's current appetite for risk-taking when it comes to allying with Russia in a stand against the West.

The Nuclear Threat 

Putin has repeatedly said Russia could use "all available means" to protect its territory, a clear reference to its nuclear arsenal.

Brigadier (Retd.) V Mahalingam said, "Russia not agreeing to go for New STRAT treaty is unlikely to have any effect. It may be recalled that US refused to renew the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, (INF Treaty) in 2019 & it had no such threat."

"Nuclear threat will become a reality if West attempts to disintegrate Russia or effect a ‘regime change’ in Russia. In that case the possibility of a nuclear attack is 90%," he added. 

Moscow's nuclear doctrine states that it could use those weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional forces threatening "the very existence of the Russian state," a formulation that offers broad room for interpretation and abrupt escalation.

Moscow suspended its participation in the New START treaty which was the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States. Speaking in his state-of-the-nation address, Putin also said that Russia should stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the U.S. does so, a move that would end a global ban on nuclear weapons tests in place since the end of the Cold War.

What's prolonging the war?

V Mahalingam added that the intransigence of the West to recognise the existential threat that NATO poses to Russia by extending eastwards besides its intentions to invite Ukraine in NATO’s fold is the primary reason. 

Not recognising NATO’s threat to Russia is a means to ensure that the war doesn’t end enabling the US’ Russia containment strategy is continued at the cost of Ukranian blood & the country’s destruction while US can merely give a pittance of money to keep the fighting to go on. 

Mahalingam noted that the West’s support & sanctions will raise inflation in Europe causing dissensions. Increased cost of fuel will affect European industries especially Germany’s which will keep Europe under US’s control. These intentions of US keeps the war prolonging.

Emergency special session of the UN General Assembly

Ukraine's foreign minister has urged the world's nations to prove they stand for the United Nations Charter and vote in favour of a UN resolution calling for a peace that ensures his war-ravaged country's "sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity".

Little prospect for talks in the year ahead

Major Ukrainian battlefield successes this summer could fuel significant political turmoil in Russia, because at that point, Putin's own position within the leadership becomes very, very difficult to see as tenable.

At the same time, if Ukraine fails to reclaim more territory before Russia builds up its troops, it could lead to a long-term stalemate and sort of a grinding attritional war that just kind of goes on and on.

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