El Niño ending; at least 60% chance of La Niña developing during July-Sept: WMO

The 2023/24 El Niño event, which drove record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather around the world, is predicted to transition to La Niña conditions later this year, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The world experienced the warmest April ever and the eleventh consecutive month of record-high temperatures. Sea surface temperatures have been record-high for the past 13 months, according to the WMO.

The WMO said this is happening due to the naturally occurring El Niño — unusual warming of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean — and the additional energy trapped in the atmosphere and ocean by greenhouse gases from human activities.

Amid a prevailing but weakening El Niño, millions of people in South Asia, including India and Pakistan, endured brutal heat in April and May.

The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts give equal chances (50 per cent) of either neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August.

The chance of La Niña conditions increases to 60 per cent during July to September and 70 per cent during August to November.

The probability of El Niño redeveloping is negligible during this time, the WMO said.

While El Niño is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, La Niña -- the antithesis of El Niño -- leads to plentiful rainfall during the monsoon.

Last month, the India Meteorological Department had forecast above normal rain in the monsoon season in India with favourable La Niña conditions expected to set in by August-September.

The monsoon is critical for India's agricultural landscape, with 52 per cent of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water, apart from power generation across the country.