China says no to smoking; cigarette market declines for first time in 2 decades

Cigarette market in China has declined for the first time in over two decades as it fell by 2.4%, which is the first decline since 2014, according to a report by Euromonitor International.

The Chinese market accounted for 45% of global cigarette volumes in 2015. Given its size, the country’s negative performance exerted a huge impact on the world cigarettes market, which worsened by more than 2% since 2014 and 2015 - the biggest global year-on-year decline in over two decades, said the report.

The reason for this is a rise in wholesale excise of cigarettes, increased government control on production and greater health awareness in some regions.

“We do not see 2015 as a one off with the Chinese market projected to lose 5% of its volumes by 2020,” says Shane MacGuill, Head of Tobacco Research. He added, “Like the ebbing of a fading tradition, 2015 cigarette volumes decline in China- the world’s largest and heretofore one of the last remaining growth markets- delivered the defining narrative of the year in global tobacco.”

MacGuill further said “2015 was largely a tale of regions switching established roles. Asia Pacific, dragged down by China, recorded a decline of 2.5% while Western Europe - for the first time in several years - saw positive volume growth as economies there recovered and outswitching to illicit, OTP and vapour products lessened.”

The report also shows that in 2015, 52.1% of the Chinese male population are smokers, but only 2.7% of the female population. Cigarette volumes decline in the US slowed down at only -0.4% since 2014. Greece is the country with the highest smoking percentage of adult population in the world, at 40.8% in 2015.