Budget & Market: Market guru Anil Singhvi decodes Budget 2024 for Dalal Street investors; here is what he thinks
Budget & Market: After Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled the Narendra Modi 3.0 government's first Budget, Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi has shared his views on its implications for Dalal Street.
Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: With the unveiling of the Narendra Modi 3.0 government's first Budget now behind, Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi has shared his views on the possible implications of the key announcements for market participants on Dalal Street. Both big events of the year, the 2024 general election as well as the Union Budget, have fallen short of Street expectations, according to the market guru, who believes that a significant fall is unlikely in the market for now as most people and funds are under-invested at the current juncture.
"How can a big fall even materialise in such a situation?" he asks, adding that the market is unlikely to suffer a big fall as long as retail flows remain strong.
Key positives for D-Street
The market guru has identified three main positive triggers for the market in the July 23 Budget: the fiscal deficit target being below 5%, the Centre's focus on creating jobs for the youth, and income tax relief for small taxpayers (set to boost consumption).
Key negatives for D-Street
The market wizard has identified four main negative triggers for the market: capital gain tax and STT hikes, a boost for gold and property (set to yield higher tax benefits), measures set to make gold more attractive, and no great mention of the government's Viksit Bharat (Developed India) vision in its five-year roadmap.
2 big events of 2024 fell short of Street expectations
The market guru highlights that after the 2024 general election, the July Budget has emerged as the second major event of the year that has missed analysts' expectations.
Budget & Market | D-Street already passed stress tests with full marks
The market wizard points out that the domestic equity market has passed stress tests with full marks, given its recovery, which is much stronger than the recent fall and has occurred in a shorter timeframe.
The market has witnessed the power of money, he adds.
Most investors & funds under-invested
According to the market wizard, most individual investors and funds are under-invested on Dalal Street at the current juncture, sitting with huge amounts of surplus cash.
Everyone wants to invest after Budget
"How can a big fall even materialise in such a situation?" asks the market guru. As long as retail flows are strong, Dalal Street is unlikely to suffer a big fall, he says.
Long-term view remains intact after Budget
The market guru says there has been no change in his long-term view of the market after the presentation of Budget 2024.
However, he adds that opportunities now will yield less money and at a slower pace
Sectoral churn at play?
The market wizard believes that while some sectors are set to get a boost from Budget announcements, others are likely to undergo profit-booking.
Key winners & losers
According to the market guru, sectors such as FMCG, IT, and pharmaceuticals are set to support the headline index, while metals and banking are set to play spoilsport.
What happens to the PSU basket post-Budget?
In the PSU zone, stocks with expensive valuations are likely to weaken from hereon, whereas those trading at attractive valuations — such as oil & gas shares — are set to continue attracting buying interest, according to the market wizard.
Nifty50 to move in 24,000-25,000 range for now
The market guru believes the blue-chip index will gyrate within a 1,000-point range for the time being, between 24,000 and 25,000.
Nifty support
He expects support to emerge for the headline index at 24,000-24,200 levels.
Where can you expect profit-booking?
The market wizard expects profit-booking to occur in the range of 24,800-25,000.
