Zee News-Matrize opinion poll: BJP emerges single-largest party, Congress and JD (S) follow in

Zee News-Matrize Opinion Poll: Zee News-Matrize Karnataka elections opinion poll released on Monday revealed that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will emerge as the single-largest party, followed by the Congress, and the Janata Dal (Secular), in the Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023, scheduled to be held on May 10. The opinion poll says that the BJP will get between 103 and 115 seats and be in prime position to retain power in the 224-member Karnataka assembly.  

The Zee News-Matrize opinion poll says the Congress will win 79 to 91 seats, while JD (S) would win between 26 and 36 seats. Others will be the losers in the elections and are likely to get 1-3 seats. In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, the BJP won 104 seats, the Congrss got 80, while JD (S) was victorious on 37 seats. 

As far as the vote percentage is concerned, the Zee News-Matrize opinion poll says the BJP will get 42 per cent votes, the Congress 40 per cent, the JD (S) 15 per cent, and others will have 3 per cent votes.    

The opinion poll says that the Lingayat community in the elections is heavily leaning to the BJP with 66 per cent of them voting for the Saffron Party. Sixteen per cent of Lingayats will vote for the Congress, 8 per cent to the JD (S), and 10 per cent to others.

As far as the Vokkaliga community is concerned, 52 per cent of them will vote for the JD (S), 28 per cent for the Congress, while four per cent for others.

The elections will be held in one phase, while the counting of the votes will take place on May 13. 

PM Modi - A Gamechanger 

The poll also revealed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the gamechanger in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly Elections, while Rahul Gandhi's 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' will yield precious little benefit for the Congress in the upcoming polls.

A total of 44 per cent people surveyed said that PM's presence in the campaigning will be the gamechanger for the BJP. While 34 per cent respondents agree with it partially, and 22 per cent participants disagree with the idea of a 'Modi Wave'.    

Bommai - No. 1 CM choice

In other findings of the opinion poll, sitting Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai of the BJP is the preferred choice of the people, followed by Siddaramaiah of Congress, H. D. Kumaraswamy of JD (S), and D Shivakumar of the Congress. Bommai emerged as the top contender with 28 per cent favouring him. Siddaramaiah is favourite among 24 per cent people, while 11 per cent like Kumaraswamy. Twenty-three percent voted in favour of others.  

Notably, a majority of those surveyed expressed satisfaction with CM Bommai's tenure in office. Thirty per cent of the sample size says it is satsified with the CM's work, 41 per cent are partially satisfied, while 29 per cent said they are dissatisfied with his work. 

Kharge's remarks to benefit BJP

The opinion poll also revealed that Mallikarjun Kharge's 'poisonous snake' remarks against PM Modi will benefit the Bharatiya Janata Party in the elections. Fifty six per cent respondents said it would benefit the ruling party, while 32 per cent said it wouldn't harm the Congress, while 12 per cent were undecided.  

Bharat Jodo Yatra won't benefit Congress

One finding that can dent the Congress' confidence is that 62 per cent respondents said that Rahul Gandhi's much-ambitious 'Bharat Jodo Yatra' won't benefit the Congress in the Karnataka Assembly Elections. While 12 per cent said that it would hugely benefit the Grand Old Party, 26 per cent said Congress would partially benefit from it.

BJP+JD (S) first coalition choice

One of the most startling factors in the survey is that 54 per cent respondents felt that BJP+JD (S) are the first choice in case a coalition government takes oath. While the Cong+JD (S), which has had its coalition government in the past, is the choice of just 28 per cent respondents. Eighteen per cent participants in the opinion poll were not sure about their choice for the coalition government.        

Sample size of around 3 lakh

Zee News has the largest sample size among all opinon polls for the Karnataka Assembly Elections so far. It includes 1.80 lakh males and 1.12 lakh females from rural as well as urban areas participated in its opinion poll conducted between March 29 and 30.However, there is a 5 per cent margin of error in the opinion poll. 

The elections are expected to be a three-cornered fight between the Congress, the BJP, and the JD(S). While AAP is also in the fray, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), CPI, CPI(M), AIMIM, and Social Democratic Party of India have also fielded their candidates.

In the 224-seat assembly, 36 are reserved for Scheduled Castes while 15 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes.