Karnataka Assembly Election 2023: Triangular contest between BJP, Congress and JD(S) on the cards?

The 2023 Karnataka Elections are just days away, and many leading parties, including the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress, and the Janata Dal (Secular) are in the fray. For the 224-member assembly, voting will be held on May 10, while the counting of the votes will be done on May 13.  

As per the Karnataka Election Commission press note on April 26, 2023, a total of 2,615 candidates (2,429 males, 185 females, and one other) are contesting the polls, after 517 candidates withdrew from the 2023 Karnataka Elections.

The registered voters in the state are around 5.31 crore, of which 2.67 crore are males, nearly 2.64 crore are females, and 4,927 are others. A total of 16,04,285 are the new voters in the Assembly election.

The BJP has fielded 224 candidates in the contest, while the Congress has 223.

The JD (S) has 207 candidates in the fray, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has its candidates on 209 seats.

The Bahujan Samaj Party has 133, the Janata Dal (United) has 8, the CPI (M) has 4, and the National People’s Party has 2 candidates in the contest.

A total of 685 candidates are from Registered Unrecognised Political Parties (RUPP), while 918 are contesting as independents.  

However, the main contest is between the BJP, the Congress, and the JD (S).

Zee Biz takes you through the current party positions in the assembly, parties in the fray in the 2023 Karnataka Elections, and if there is a possibility for other parties to emerge as kingmaker.  

Karnataka Polls 2023: Assembly composition

In the 2018 elections, the BJP emerged as the largest party with 104 seats, up from its 2013 tally of just 40 seats. The Congress dropped from 122 seats to 80, while JD (S) slid from 40 seats to 38 during the same period.

In such a hung situation, the JD (S) became the kingmaker and formed a coalition government with the Congress.

The JD’s (S) HD Kumaraswamy became the chief minister for his second term.

However, the government was short-lived, as in 2019, 15 MLAs from the JD(S) and the Congress put down their papers, triggering a bypoll.

In the bypoll, the BJP added another 12 MLAs to its tally, and formed the government with BS Yediyurappa swearing in as the chief minister of the state for his fourth term.

The veteran, however, had to step down due to party differences, and his party’s Basavaraj Bommai took over as the new chief minister on July 28, 2021.  

At present, the BJP has 113 seats, the Congress (74), JD (S) 27, and 10 seats are vacant in the legislative assembly.      

Party profiles

BJP

The BJP is the single-largest party in the state with 113 seats with Bommai at the helm of affairs.

The party’s first chief minister in the state was BS Yediyurappa, who built the party in the state literally from scratch and became the CM for just seven days in November 2007.

It was after a power-sharing formula between the JD (S) and the BJP failed after Kumaraswamy pulled the plug on the government.

Though it was a precursor to the BJP's improved fortunes in the 13th Assembly elections in 2008. For the first time, the BJP became the single largest party, when it got 110 seats to topple the Congress, which came in second with 80 seats.

The roaring success saw Yediyurappa take over as CM for the second time with the help of a few independent MLAs.

However, his time was marred by controversies and corruption charges, as he had to resign due to his alleged role in a land scam.

Yediyurappa was replaced by his handpicked DV Sadnanda Gowda. His choice could stay in power for little less than a year as he was replaced by BJP veteran Jagadish Shettar.

Meanwhile, in November 2012, Yediyurappa deserted the BJP’s ship and formed his own party, the Karnataka Jana Paksha (KJP), only to merge it with the BJP in 2014, though after causing much damage to his parent party.    

Controversies, political wrangling, and the KJP’s 10 per cent vote share dented the BJP’s chances in the 2013 Assembly Elections, as the Congress touched the halfway mark easily with a commanding victory of 122 seats.

The BJP plummeted from 110 seats in 2008 to 40 seats. Congress’ Siddaramaiah became the CM for the next five years.

In the 2018 Assembly Election, some exit polls showed Siddaramaiah as the first CM choice, while most of them showed a hung assembly.

But by that time, the BJP government in the Centre was four years old, and 'Modi Magic' held sway across the country. Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned aggressively in the buildup to the election as the BJP turned the tables on the Congress on the counting day, winning 104 seats, and pushing the ruling party in the state to 80 seats. JD (S), with its 38 MLAs, became the kingmaker, and formed a coalition government with the Congress.

However, 15 MLAs from JD (S) and the Congress resigned, forcing a bypoll.

After the bypoll, the BJP consolidated its tally to 116 seats, as Yediyurappa became the CM again.

He was later replaced by Bommai, whose father, SR Bommai, a Janata Dal veteran, had also been a CM of the state.

Congress:

The party had been in power ever since the state was known as Mysore. K. Chengalaraya Reddy was the first chief minister of the state.

After the state reorganisation in 1956, Congress veteran S. Nijalingappa became the CM.

The party had an unprecedented run till January 10, 1983, when the Janata Party stalwart Ramakrishna Hegde was sworn in as the first non-Congress CM of the state.

He spent a full term, followed by his party’s SR Bommai.

It took another six years for the Congress to return to power with Veerendra Patil taking over as CM in November 1989.

Janata Dal’s HD Deve Gowda ended the Congress’ streak in December 1994 as he was sworn in as the state’s 14th CM.

But the Congress would stage a comeback through SM Krishna in October 1999 and stay in power for around six years.

Starting February 2006, the next seven years would have a non-Congress leader in power before the party would get back to winning ways in May 2013.

Siddaramaiah would complete his term uninterrupted.

The party got a backdoor entry through JD (S) in May 2018, but just a year later, it was ousted by the BJP after bypolls on 15 seats.          

JD (S)

The party has Janata Dal footprints on it because, in 1999, two ex CMs, Deve Gowda and Hegde, merged their factions of the Janata Dal to form JD (S). The party, which has a strong base in the Old Mysuru region, has played a key role in Karnataka politics ever since coming into existence.

Within five years of its formation, the party had its share of power, forming a coalition government with the Congress.

However, 42 MLAs from the party under the leadership of HD Kumaraswamy left the coalition, and the Congress government fell.

On February 4, 2006, the party saw Kumaraswamy take over as its first CM in the state.

The secular party changed its colours in no time and supported the saffron party (BJP) in October 2007 to form a government on a power-sharing basis.

Kumaraswamy refused to share power with a BJP CM later and tendered his resignation in October 2007.

The MLA tally of JD (S) in the 2008 polls fell to 28.

The party recovered in 2013 with its second-best showing of 40 seats.

Party chief Deve Gowda sensed the opportunity after the 2018 Assembly elections when he torpedoed the BJP’s plan for a comeback after he extended his support to the Congress.

Before the Congress had its taste of power as a CM, the government fell.

The party’s ability to emerge as a kingmaker in Karnataka politics can never be ruled out.

Can JD (S) become a major player?

In the 2023 Karnataka election, the JD (S) can again become a key player if any of the major parties -the BJP and the Congress- fails to get the full majority.

In the Zee News-Matrize opinion poll, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with the possibility of winning between 103 and 115 seats.

The survey showed that the Congress can win from 79 to 91 seats, while the JD (S) can win 37 seats.

Even though the Modi-led campaign in Karnataka seems to be giving the BJP an edge, it can't be said that the party will get a walkover in the 2023 Assembly Polls.

If the BJP stays within 100–105 seats, and the Congress gets above 80 seats, the JD (S) can again emerge as a key player.

However, a possibility that can’t be ruled out is that the JD (S) can go with the BJP too in a power-sharing formula to strengthen its chances of staying in power for long.