Gold Price Today, weekly outlook ahead of US Jackson Hole meeting 2022 – experts decode trading, investment strategy on bullion

Gold Price Outlook: Gold appears to be on a slippery turf in the near to immediate term and all eyes are now on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium where US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak on the economic outlook. At least three experts have given a negative outlook for bullion over this week. This is what they said.

The October Gold futures were trading at Rs 51150 per 10 gram on the MCX at pm and were down by Rs 339 or 0.70 per cent from the Friday closing price.

Meanwhile, the MCX September Silver futures were trading at Rs 54859 per kg and were down by Rs 637 or 1.2 per cent from the last closing price.

Gold Price Today: Intraday trading Strategy

Commodity expert Anuj Gupta recommends a sell strategy on Gold and Silver futures. Sell October Gold futures at Rs 51300 with a stop loss of Rs 51580 and price target of Rs 50900. As for September Silver futures, selling is recommended at Rs 55000 with a stop loss of Rs 55600 and target of Rs 54200.   

Anuj Gupta - Vice President (VP), Commodity and Currency Research at IIFL Securities

MCX gold prices corrected sharply by 2.10 per cent during the previous week and the October Gold futures closed at Rs 51479. Spot gold corrected by 3.02 per cent and closed at USD 1746 levels.

Meanwhile, MCX September Silver futures also fell sharply by 6.38 per cent and closed at Rs 55496 and in spot market it corrected by more than 8 per cent and closed at USD 19, Gupta said.

Bullion prices corrected after mixed data raises questions on whether the fledgling US recession will deepen or the dollar will pick up steam again as the Federal Reserve weighs more outsized rate hikes.

The dollar index gained 2.40 per cent and closed at 107.84 in the week gone by on comments from Federal Reserve officials that the bank would stick to a sharp pace of rate hikes this year to bring down runaway inflation.

For this week gold may find support at Rs 51000 (USD 1730) and Rs 50700 (USD 1710) levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at Rs 51800 (USD 1760) and Rs 52200 (USD 1790) levels.

“We are recommending sell on rise in Gold around 51 800 levels. But they can also buy around support levels at 51000 with the stop loss of 50700 for the target of 51800 levels which may work as a strong resistance levels for the gold,” Gupta said.

As for September Silver futures, support is seen at Rs 54000 and then at Rs 52500 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 57000 and than 59000 levels. Traders can go for sell in silver around 57000 levels, he added.

Trend of yellow metals are mixed. From the interest rate standpoint, Fed hiking interest rate is negative for bullions, however geopolitical tension and inflation is positive for bullions. “We may see both side movement in yellow metals. Physical demand may emerge on lower levels in bullions,” he added.

Cost of mining of gold is increased by 7 per cent year-on-year to USD 1173 an ounce in 2022. This increased due to increases in mining, labour, diesel, power, royalties, raw material, and transportation. This augurs positive for bullions.

Pritam Patnaik, Head - Commodities, HNI & NRI Acquisitions at Axis Securities

Gold prices continue their downward trend as hawkish statements continue from the Fed officials. It seems like the central bank is adamant about using brute monetary tightening to reign in the runaway inflation. While the inflationary trend did soften a bit (in July), it is still way ahead of the Fed’s 2 per cent target.

Thus, one can expect the US Fed to continue its aggressive rate hike plans. The market estimates a min of 50 basis points and a max of 75 basis point hike in the Fed’s September meeting. This has helped to get the pace back in USD and Bond rally, pushing back gold prices. The focus will shift to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address to the Jackson Hole Symposium this Friday. Till then, one can expect gold to trade in a range with negative bias.

Tarun Satsangi, AGM (Commodity Research), Origo e-Mandi

Bullion prices have retreated over the last couple of days as the surging US Dollar index, which has jumped from 104.5 to 108.05, weighed along with rising US Bond Yields, Tarun Satsangi, AGM (Commodity Research), Origo e-Mandi said. Gold prices have to sustain TRP-USD 1740/ounce to keep the hope for a rally alive as below this once again gold will enter into a medium-term bearish trend.

 Above USD 1740, it can jump to USD 1800 and below USD 1740, odds for USD 1680 will be stronger.

Coming to the domestic spot market, prices of gold have fallen to Rs 51255 per 10 grams from Rs 52600 per 10 grams in the past few days, tracking the international market slide. Now, it is close to the TRP-Rs 50980. If prices sustain it, the recovery towards the recent high of Rs 52600 will be seen. But, on the other side, gold will turn bearish in the medium-term below Rs 50980 with the possibility of slipping towards Rs 49500-Rs 49700 once again.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advises expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)