EXPLAINED: The future of foldable smartphones

Could 2023 be the year of foldable smartphones? It very well could turn out to be with several models already launched and more are in the offing as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) aim to tap opportunities in the segment. The foldable smartphone market is poised to grow over 65 per cent in 2023, with the bulk of sales coming in the price range of Rs 60,000 - Rs 70,000, as per CyberMedia Research (CMR). 

While Samsung has seized the first-mover advantage, other OEMs are not far behind. Google has announced its Pixel Fold, Tecno has launched its Phantom V Fold and Huawei has unveiled Mate X3 - some of them are likely to be available in coming months. The obvious question arises is - Will there be any budget foldable smartphones available in this range by any reliable brands?

First-mover advantage for Samsung? 

TechArc’s Faisal Kawoosa strongly feels that foldable smartphones will not remain confined to brands like Samsung and Google, and consumers will be open to experimenting with other brands, mostly Chinese, while adding that Google may not gain much.

"There are other brands as well, like OnePlus, OPPO, and Vivo, where I see consumers being open to experimenting with their foldables as and when they are introduced in the market. I don't see Google, from India's standpoint, gaining much even when it launches a foldable phone in India. There's no doubt it's a trusted brand, but its journey in devices is honestly yet to take off," Kawoosa told ZeeBiz.com's Raghwendra Shukla.

TechInsights’ Manish Rawat believes brands like Samsung and Google will have an edge because of their credibility and good reputation in the market.

"Since entering the foldable phone industry earlier, Samsung has had more time to develop its product. The software experience of Google's Pixel Fold looks promising, even if it may not have any unique features to support its high price.”

China-based OEMs may work on the affordability factor but it may still take some time before that optimisation can happen.

Prabhu Ram, Head-Industry Intelligence Group (IIG), CMR, hopes for rationalisation of costs as OEMs work to make these devices more affordable, while IDC India’s Upasana Joshi feels that it will take some time before Chinese OEMs build momentum in the segment.

"Samsung has a huge first-mover advantage. While China-based brands are now jumping on the bandwagon, it is still time before they gain momentum.," Joshi told ZeeBiz.com

Why Chinese brands can’t be underestimated?

Chinese brands are well-known for their innovation and low prices, and TechInsight’s Rawat thinks that they are expected to play a big part in the foldable smartphone market.

"Due to their innovation and low prices, Chinese brands are expected to keep playing a big part in the market for foldable smartphones. However, other global brands can also lift their game and emerge as strong competitors for Chinese brands. Ultimately, a brand's dominance and success in the foldable smartphone market will be determined by its ability to satisfy customer needs, product quality, price, marketing tactics, consumer preferences, appealing features, and smooth user experience. It will be fascinating to watch how various brands compete and develop in this sector, which is in flux.”

TechArc’s Kawoosa says the segmentation of Chinese and non-Chinese brands is no longer relevant.

"Nowadays, consumers look at the market from a different perspective. Based on these, consumers have mappings of their own regarding brands, irrespective of whether they are Chinese or non-Chinese," Kawoosa told ZeeBiz.com.

IDC India’s Joshi says it won’t help Chinese brands if they compete with Samsung.

"Owing to the "value for money" tag for China-based vendors, brands might have to rethink the positioning and pricing of the foldable devices – matching the prices with the likes of Samsung might not work in their favour.”

Will Samsung sustain its market dominance in foldable smartphones?

Market experts are of the view that Samsung may introduce new foldable devices targeting various user segments to cement its leadership in the segment.

"Samsung, with its upcoming fifth generation of foldable phones, is expected to capitalise on its success from the all-important festive season sales in India last year. Leveraging its market knowledge and insights, Samsung may introduce new foldable devices targeting various user segments or personas, with an intent to further solidify its leadership in the foldable phone market," CMR’s Prabhu Ram told ZeeBiz.com.

Rawat suggests that lowering prices can be a good strategy to attract more customers and compete with rivals, but big brands such as Samsung or Google won’t reduce their prices to appeal to more customers. 

"Price reductions might be one of the many options for Samsung and Google to attract more people. They may also provide distinctive experiences, cutting-edge features, or enhanced customer service to make their products stand apart from rivals: experiences, advanced features, or improved customer interactions," Rawat said.

What the future holds?

Almost half a million foldable smartphones were shipped in 2022, with a total market size of 144 million units. According to IDC (International Data Corporation), it is expected to grow by more than 35–40 per cent in 2023, with more models from different brands. Not just in 2023, they are likely to witness good growth over the next two to three years. Also, India has a sizable smartphone user base, so foldable devices will likely find a good market here. But experts believe that the price will be a crucial factor in deciding the outcome of this transition phase.

Calling a spade a spade, IDC’s Joshi said that very high prices may restrict the growth of foldable smartphones in India.

"The new form factor attracts consumer attention. However, very high price points might restrict growth. Also, the use cases of the fold form factor might not be relevant to a wider range of consumers, thus limiting the reach of these devices. However, it certainly brings innovativeness, differential functionalities, and uniqueness.”

Concurring with Joshi, Kawoosa feels that foldable is unlikely to become a mass market form factor, but the segment may break into two: ultra-luxe and 'affordable'.

The foldable smartphones have shown potential and attracted interest from customers who value a bigger screen in a compact form factor, while adding that the adoption of foldable smartphones in India will grow gradually.

Though weight and size are some of issues with foldable smartphones that can’t be ignored, the phones can still grow in popularity if they keep focusing on innovation and advanced features. With more OEMs entering the foldable smartphone market, the race to capture the share from unfoldable smartphones will be interesting. 

With inputs from Shaghil Bilali