Is there a correlation between residential real estate and general elections in India? Trends in the past two Lok Sabha election years, 2014 and 2019, show significant spikes in housing sales to fresh peaks. In 2014, sales in seven cities in the country, New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai, and Kolkata, soared to approximately 3.45 lakh units accompanied by record-high launches of nearly 5.45 lakh units, according to property consultant ANAROCK.

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Similarly, in 2019, housing sales in the seven cities escalated to around 2.61 lakh units with launches surging to approximately 2.37 lakh units, following a period of sluggishness in the residential real estate market between 2016 and 2019, the consultant wrote in a report dated March 21.

What boosted the housing market? 

Structural reforms 

According to ANAROCK, the period between 2016 and 2017 saw the implementation of major structural reforms in India:

  • Demonetisation
  • Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act (RERA)
  • Goods and Services Tax (GST)

These reforms transitioned the country's real estate market from a relatively unregulated landscape to a more organised and transparent sector, and, consequently, many unreliable developers exited the market, paving the way for more organised players and significantly boosting confidence among homebuyers, it said. 

Here are some other key highlights of the report: 

Election results influence market behaviour: Emphasising the influence of decisive election results on the housing market's performance in 2014 and 2019, ANAROCK Group Chairman Anuj Puri suggests that such outcomes prompt homebuyers to move from indecision to action, contributing to market momentum.

Price trends reflect market dynamics: ANAROCK's analysis of price trends reveals that 2014 outperformed 2019, with average prices in the seven cities increasing more than six per cent in 2014 as against one per cent in 2019, a disparity that underscores the varying market conditions and consumer sentiments during the election years.

Challenges amidst reforms and crisis: The residential real estate sector faced significant challenges between 2016 and 2019 due to policy reforms and the NBFC crisis triggered by IL&FS in 2018, the events that led to considerable turmoil within the industry.

Pandemic fallout: Following a setback caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the housing market exhibited resilience and gained momentum from 2021.

Outlook for 2024 Election Year

As the country approaches another election year in 2024, optimism abounds in the residential real estate market.

ANAROCK's Puri predicts that 2024 could witness another peak in housing sales and new launches, supported by a host of factors: 

  • Regulatory stability: Most real estate regulatory reforms are already in place, providing stability to the market.
  • Economic growth: Strong GDP predictions by international organisations, such as the IMF, indicate promising economic growth in India, indirectly benefiting the real estate sector.
  • Controlled inflation: With inflation under control, financial optimism among homebuyers remains high.
  • Developer's preparation: Developers have secured significant land deals and maintained clean balance sheets, attracting confidence from investors and homebuyers alike.

Meanwhile, another property consultant, Knight Frank India reported a significant surge in real estate registrations in Pune in February 2024 with as many as 17,570 transactions, a substantial 23 per cent increase on a year-on-year basis. Stamp duty collections during the month totalled Rs 620 crore, marking a notable 20 per cent rise that underscores the growing confidence among homebuyers in the city driven by favourable affordability and a positive outlook on property ownership.

Here are some highlights of the report:

  • Registration of residential units priced between Rs 50 lakh and Rs 1 crore constituted the highest proportion in February, accounting for 32 per cent of all housing transactions
  • Properties priced between Rs 25 lakh and Rs 50 lakh represented 30 per cent of the properties registered
  • A notable increase in the share of properties priced under Rs 25 lakh, rising from 16 per cent in February 2023 to 22 per cent in February 2024

“Pune's real estate market continues to thrive fueled by strong demand for homeownership, favourable affordability, and a supportive business landscape. February 2024 witnessed a robust 23% year-on-year increase in registrations, signaling a promising start to the year," said Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director of Knight Frank India.