Technically, in Short term MCX Gold price Feb is trading in channel line (Rs 47500 to Rs 52500) levels for a short term period. On the Downside, it has taken strong support at 200 day moving average on 30/11/20, after that the price bounced back from that level .Currently,200 day moving average comes around Rs 48850 levels ,which will be going to provide immediate support after that Down channel line will provide strong support levels for the term period (one month period). Similarly, on the upside it will face strong resistance at upper channel line which comes around Rs 52350 to Rs 52500 levels approximately.
 
Medium term view:
 
Technically, Ventura Securities expect Gold price is trading in channel line and expect it going to break out on either side .On the downside it will take strong support at Down channel line and breaking below which on a daily closing basis can expect price will drag down towards Rs 45300 to Rs 45000 levels.
 
On the upside,if breaks above upper channel line resistance on a daily closing basis can expect price will head towards Rs 56300 levels over next three to four months period
 
Long term view:
 
Ventura Securities highlights that over the past four months period, MCX Gold price has fallen from Rs 56100 to Rs 47800 levels and is currently taking support at the Channel line and 200 day moving average. Also on the monthly chart, the price pattern has formed like a bullish flag pattern. Going forward, Ventura Securities expects the next leg of the rally would start once it breaks above 53,000 levels on a weekly basis. On the upside, it will face an immediate resistance at 56,200  levels after that price will march towards Rs 63000 to Rs 65000 over the next one to two years period. On the other hand, if it breaks below the channel line support can expect price to drag down towards Rs 44200 levels first after that Rs 40500 levels over the next one to two years period.
 
Gold View (Fundamental):
 
There’s normally an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and Gold prices. Going forward, based on the Dollar index, the next move in Gold price is expected in the coming days
 
Upside triggers:
 
• A second Stimulus package deal agreed (Negative for the Dollar index and positive for Gold);
• BREXIT (31.12.2020)
• Global Economic Slowdown (Deeper recession and slower recovery for the virus-affected world economy)
• Gold Speculators pushed bullish bets to 19-week high
 
 
Downside triggers:
 
• New corona virus strain in Britain (Positive for the Dollar Index & negative for Gold price).
• Covid-19 Vaccine (Global impact)
• Geo political tensions may reduce between China & U.S; This may reduce the Gold price.
• Gold ETF outflows for the first time in a year
 
Note : Any appreciation/depreciation of Rupee may impact MCX Gold price