How banking, financials and other rate-sensitive sectors have fared since the last RBI MPC meeting?

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy committee is all set to announce its decision on Thursday, April 6, after three days meeting that started on Monday, April 3. Most analysts expect that the central bank may go for another rate hike of 25 basis points with a likely ‘neutral’ stance. 

Ahead of the policy verdict tomorrow, here’s how the rate-sensitive sectors have fared since the last policy in February 2023. The bi-monthly April meeting would be the first of the new financial year. 

The overall markets have been in the doldrums for the past two months, mainly disturbed by global cues such as the banking crisis in the US and Europe among other factors. The benchmark indices – BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 – were each down by over 2.5 per cent since February 8, 2023. 

The banking and financial services indices have outperformed the headline indices as both Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial Services dipped by over 1.5 per cent each in the last two months since the previous RBI monetary policy meeting in February. 

While the Nifty PSU Bank basket underperformed the Nifty Bank and Nifty50 as it tumbled around 4 per cent in the last two months.  

Among heavyweights, financial stocks such as Bajaj twins – Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv shares have cracked by 9 and 5.5 per cent, respectively. While banking majors like SBI was down over 5 per cent, followed flat HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank rose almost 3 per cent in two months. 

Among other rate-sensitive sectors, Nifty Auto cracked over 6 per cent, followed by Nifty Realty down over 5 per cent and Nifty Consumer Durables fell by over 2.5 per cent in the last two months.    

The central bank in the previous policy decision had announced a rate hike of 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent with a ‘withdrawal of accommodative’ stance.   

The present macroeconomic environment is witnessing a weaker-than-expected global growth trend for an extended period, besides, supply-side shocks to global commodity / domestic food prices and progressive tightening of financial conditions, as per Mandar Pitale, Head- Treasury, SBM Bank India. 

This may lead to weaker business sentiments in the longer run, the banking expert said, expecting another repo rate hike of 25 bps by RBI on Thursday. He added the RBI will need to walk a tightrope to achieve a balance given the current backdrop of high inflation and mixed signal on growth. 

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