IOCL, BPCL touch 52-week highs after crude oil plunges; what should you do?

Shares of oil state-run oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation surged to 52-week highs on Tuesday, after international benchmark crude oil rates plummeted four per cent to sub-$72 a barrel levels. Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum shares gained around 1.5 per cent each to touch peaks of Rs 93.1 apiece and Rs 376.9 apiece respectively, while the Hindustan Petroleum stock rose 0.6 per cent to Rs 277, coming within Re 1.5 of a 52-week high touched last week. 

The latest bout of buying adds to a rapid rise in OMC stocks over the past few sessions. Analysts say no change in retail prices of petrol and diesel in the country has likely benefitted the oil marketing companies. 

In the past one year, crude oil prices have dropped about 47 per cent over the past one year. India meets the lion's share of its oil requirement through imports. 

Petrol and diesel rates have remained unchanged since April 2022.   

Why are OMCs' shares rising?

According to Zee Business research analyst Varun Dubey, OMC stocks have shown a steady rise in the past few sessions the IOCL, BPCL and HPCL shares rose between 3-5 per cent in the last two days on the back of lower crude oil prices, and stable petrol/diesel rates.

Besides, OMCs also benefitted from cheap crude oil imported from Russia. The share of Russia’s crude oil import rose to 21 per cent from 2 per cent.

Moreover, the state-owned companies' under-recovery comes to an end as the total under-recovery in FY23 was around Rs 62,100 crore, Zee Business research noted.

Similarly, OMC's marketing margin will be improved by the decrease in crude oil price, similarly, working capital is also likely to improve due to a fall in crude oil.

Crude oil plunges

Global crude oil prices fell by around $3 a barrel on Monday, with Brent crude futures dropping by $3 or 3.9 per cent to $71.8 a barrel — their lowest since December 2021 — and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures by $3.1 or 4.4 per cent to $67.1 a barrel.