HSBC bearish on this Tata group stock; can likely fall over 22%: Do you own it?

Tata Chemicals shares will be in focus in Wednesday's session after global brokerage HSBC continued with its 'reduce' rating on the counter. The target pegged on the stock is Rs 820, implying a potential downside of over 22 per cent.

The brokerage stated that the imposition of minimum import price (MIP) is likely to benefit the company in a limited way. MIP protects domestic players from further global soda ash price declines and may positively impact volumes, it added.

Importanly, the centre has levied a a minimum import price (MIP) of Rs 20,108 per tonne on soda ash until June 30, 2025.

The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) issued a notice which said that this MIP is imposed on Disodium Carbonate or Soda Ash. Also, the notification clarified that the current free import policy will come into effect again from July 1, 2025, unless further changes are made.

So, uncertainty remains on whether MIP is a temporary measure, noted the brokerage. Nonetheless, it believes in case the benefit is extended, a sensitivity analysis suggests a 5 per cent higher volume growth in FY26.

The brokerage added that overall the industry demand outlook remains muted amid oversupply risk.

Last, the stock is trading below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMA at Rs 1,043 per share, signalling downtrend.

The consensus recommendation from 8 analysts for Tata Chemicals is STRONG SELL, with only 1 analyst recommending a hold call.

Tata Chemicals share price performance

In the last one year the stock of Tata Chemicals has delivered a negative return of over 5 per cent, with its 52-week low and 52-week high prices at Rs 933 and Rs 1,349 per share respectively.