Should you buy/sell/hold BPCL shares? Brokerages place targets at Rs 730-Rs 890

BPCL Share Price: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) shares rose by nearly four per cent on BSE on Friday, May 10, 2024, after the oil and marketing company (OMC) reported operationally strong January-March (fourth-quarter) results a day ago.

After closing at Rs 592.30 in the previous session, the stock of the OMC jumped by 4.98 per cent to the day's high of Rs 621.80 on Friday. 

The stock of the company was trading higher by 3.75 per cent, or Rs 22.20, at Rs 614.50 at 9:29 am on Friday. 

BPCL Q4 FY24 (QoQ) (Stand) results

The OMC's profit after tax (PAT) jumped by 24.30 per cent to Rs 4,224.2 crore in the current quarter against Rs 3,397 crore Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ).

It was below Zee Business research's estimates of Rs 5,474 crore.

The company's revenue from operations was up by just 0.9 per cent to Rs 1,16,555 crore in the quarter under review compared to Rs 1,15,494 crore QoQ.

It was below analyst estimates of Rs 1,20,970 crore.

BPCL's EBIDTA was above-research estimates as it soared by 48 per cent to Rs 9,213 crore compared to Rs 6,226.3 crore in the previous quarter.

Analysts had estimated it to be Rs 9,146 crore.

Its margin also beat Street estimates as it was 8 per cent against 5.4 per cent QoQ.

The research team's estimate for it was 7.6 per cent.

BPCL's exceptional items were worth Rs 1,798.02 crore.

It also announced the bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1.

A final dividend of Rs 21 per equity share (pre-bonus) was also announced.

Average GRM slipped to $14.14 per barrel in the current quarter compared $20.24 per barrel in the same quarter last year. ($13.4/bbl in 3QFY24)

Physical Performance (MMT)

Refinery Throughtput was up by 5.1 per cent to 10.36 MMT compared to 9.86 MMT 

Market Sales were up by two per cent to 13.18 MMT compared to 12.92 MMT.

Sales Growth skyrocketed by 143 per cent to 2.09 MMT against 0.86 MMT.

Export sales were down by 17.90 per cent to 0.23 MMT compared to 0.28 MMT.

Result was down because of lower marketing margins and higher raw material costs.

Reuters reported that BPCL's chairman and managing Director G. Krishnakumar is cautiously optimistic and expects crude oil prices to remain in the range of $83-$87 per barrel in the near future.

The executive said that BPCL is setting up two petchem facilities, which will triple its gas footprint by fiscal year 2029.

The plan is to increase the refining capacity to 45 million metric tonnes per annum by FY 2029 and add 4000 new fuel stations.

What brokerages say

Jefferies on BPCL 

Jefferies has mantained a 'buy' call on the OMC, cutting the target to Rs 730 from Rs 890
 

CITI on BPCL 

Citi has maintained a 'buy' call on the firm, raising the target to Rs 760 from Rs 750.

The OMC reported a refining-led miss in 4Q, with qoq recovery in EBITDA (from Rs 62bn to Rs 92bn) coming in 16 per cent below estimates.

Pre-tax profit was correspondingly 20 per cent below estimate. Full year FY24 EPS was, nonetheless, very strong at Rs125/sh, the brokerage said.