Anil Singhvi Market Strategy September 19: Important levels to track in Nifty50, Nifty Bank today

Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the headline Nifty50 index to emerge at 25,275-25,335 levels and a strong buy zone at 25,150-25,235 levels on Thursday, September 19. 

For the Nifty Bank, he expects support to come in at 52,425-52,575 levels and a strong buy zone at 52,150-52,275 levels.

Here's how the market guru sums up the trade setup this morning: 

• Global: Positive
• FII: Positive
• DII: Neutral
• F&O: Neutral
• Sentiment: Positive
• Trend: Positive
• FII long positions at 69 per cent vs 68 per cent the previous day
• Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) at 1.13 vs 1.30
• Nifty Bank PCR at 0.99 vs 1.09
• Volatility index India VIX up six per cent at 13.37

The market wizard sees a higher zone for the headline index at 25,440-25,475 levels and a "blue-sky zone" above the 25,500 mark. 

For the banking index, he sees a higher zone at 52,950-53,100 levels and a profit-booking zone at 53,175-53,350 levels. 

Key takeaways from Fed policy review

• US central bank has started to reduce rates after four years
• Inflation under control
• Fed has announced 50 bps rate cut
• One can expect additional reduction of 50 bps this year, and 100 bps in 2025, 50 bps in 2026

Highlights of Fed commentary 

• No fear of a recession
• US economy strong
• Fed confident about containing inflation at 2 per cent
• Clear signals about future rate cuts
• Fed not to return to too-low-interest-rate era
• Focus on addressing unemployment 
• Fed Chair looks confident after a long time

Potential impact on India

• Dollar to remain weak
• Emerging markets like India can expect inflows
• It will be easier for RBI to reduce rates now
• Time to stay aligned with the strong uptrend
• With Fed policy now behind, one can expect buying to gather steam on Dalal Street

What should traders do?

• Risk emanating from the big event now gone
• Dalal Street is in a broad buying trend
• Maintain 'buy on dips’ strategy
• Fresh highs in Dow & S&P to strengthen buying trend
• One can expect seesaw moves on Dalal Street & Wall Street for this week
• Wall Street expected to give a clear direction from Monday

What should investors do?

• Pace of buying to increase on Dalal Street
• There's a higher possibility of RBI rate cuts now
• Time for investors to buy their favourite stocks now
• Buying to intensify in midcap & smallcap stocks
• No cause for concern as long as Nifty50 holds 24,750 

ALSO READ: Fed surprises economists with better-than-expected 50 bps rate cut; what next?

MARKET STRATEGY 

For existing long positions:

• Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 25,275
• Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 52,400

For existing short positions:

• Nifty intraday stop loss at 25,525 and closing stop loss at 25,425
• Nifty Bank intraday stop loss at 53,050 and closing stop loss at 52,800

For new positions in Nifty50:

• The best range to buy Nifty is 25,235-25,335 with a stop loss at 25,150 for targets of 25,375, 25,415, 25,440 and 25,475; above 25,500, one may hold their long positions with a trailing stop loss
• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty near 25,500 with a strict stop loss at 25,550 for targets of 25,440, 25,385, 25,335, 25,300 and 25,275

For new positions in Nifty Bank: 

• Aggressive traders buy Nifty Bank with a strict stop loss at 52,500 for targets of 52,875, 52,950, 53,100, 53,175 and 53,350
• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty Bank in the 53,175-53,350 range with a strict stop loss at 53,425 for targets of 53,100, 53,025, 52,950, 52,875 and 52,750