Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the headline Nifty50 index to emerge at 24,250-24,365 levels and a strong buy zone at 24,075-24,200 levels on Wednesday, July 24, a day after the finance minister unveiled the Narendra Modi government's first Budget after returning to power for a third straight term. For the Nifty Bank, he expects support to come in at 51,350-51,500 levels followed by a stronger support zone at 51,000-51,150 levels.

Here's how Anil Singhvi sums up the market setup:

  • Global: Negative
  • FII: Negative
  • DII: Positive
  • F&O: Neutral
  • Sentiment: Neutral
  • Trend: Positive
  • FII long positions at 74 per cent vs 79 per cent the previous day
  • Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) at 0.87 vs 1.02
  • Nifty Bank PCR at 0.56 vs 0.72
  • India VIX down 17.5 per cent at 12.75

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He expects a higher zone for the headline index at 24,575-24,650 levels and a strong sell zone at 24,800-24,850 levels. 

For the banking index, he expects a higher zone at 51,950-52,175 and a strong sell zone at 52,275-52,425 levels.

What is positive in Budget 2024?

  • Fiscal deficit target below 5 per cent
  • Focus on creating employment opportunities for the youth
  • Income tax relief for small taxpayers to boost consumption

What is negative in Budget 2024?

  • Capital gains tax & STT hikes 
  • Gold & property to offer higher tax benefits
  • Buying gold more attractive
  • No big mention of Viksit Bharat vision in five-year roadmap 

Budget & Market

  • Both big events - election results & Budget - below expectations
  • Market passed stress tests with full marks
  • Reduced weakness and that too in shorter timeframe
  • Recovery stronger than fall
  • Market has witnessed the power of money
  • Most people & funds under-invested, sitting on huge amounts of cash 
  • Everyone wants to invest after Budget
  • How can a big fall even materialise in such a situation?
  • As long as retail flows are strong, market won't suffer a big fall

Post-Budget view on Dalal Street 

  • No change in long-term view
  • Opportunities to make lesser money slowly
  • Index management will continue; some sectors to get a boost, others to face profit-booking
  • Index to be supported by FMCG, IT, pharma stocks
  • Metal and banking shares to remain weak
  • In PSU basket, expensive stocks to weaken; oil & gas stocks, at attractive valuations, to continue to attract buying interest
  • Nifty50 to spend time in the 24,000-25,000 range for now
  • Strong support for index at 24,000-24,200
  • Profit-booking expected at 24,800-25,000
  • Nifty Bank to stay neutral to negative till ICICI Bank & Axis Bank announce their results
  • FII index long positions continue to be high at 74 per cent 
  • Market at risk of big FII outflows
  • Liquidity to reduce in case of big block deals and IPOs 

ANIL SINGHVI MARKET STRATEGY   

For existing long positions:

  • Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 24,300
  • Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 51,300

For existing short positions:

  • Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 24,600
  • Nifty Bank intraday stop loss at 52,050 and closing stop loss at 52,300

For new positions in Nifty50: 

  • Aggressive traders can buy Nifty in the 24,250-24,365 range with a strict stop loss at 24,150 for targets of 24,400, 24,425, 24,475, 24,500, 24,525 and 24,575
  • Aggressive traders can sell Nifty with a strict stop loss at 24,600 for targets of 24,435, 24,400, 24,350, 24,325, 24,300, 24,250, 24,200 and 24,150

For new positions in Nifty Bank: 

  • Aggressive traders can sell Nifty Bank with a strict stop loss at 52,050 for targets of 51,500, 51,400, 51,350, 51,275, 51,150 and 51,000
  • Aggressive traders can buy Nifty Bank in the 51,000-51,150 range with a strict stop loss at 50,900 for targets of 51,275, 51,350, 51,400, 51,500, 51,750, 51,850 and 51,950

Stocks in F&O ban

  • Out of ban: Bandhan Bank, Chambal Fertilisers, HAL, Piramal Enterprises
  • Already in ban: GNFC, India Cements, SAIL
  • New in ban: None

Stock of the Day

Sell Bajaj Finance shares for targets of Rs 6,610, Rs 6,565 and Rs 6,435 with a stop loss at Rs 6,780 

  • Results weak on all fronts

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