Anil Singhvi Market Strategy July 24: A day after Budget, important levels to track in Nifty50, Nifty Bank

Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects support for the headline Nifty50 index to emerge at 24,250-24,365 levels and a strong buy zone at 24,075-24,200 levels on Wednesday, July 24, a day after the finance minister unveiled the Narendra Modi government's first Budget after returning to power for a third straight term. For the Nifty Bank, he expects support to come in at 51,350-51,500 levels followed by a stronger support zone at 51,000-51,150 levels.

Here's how Anil Singhvi sums up the market setup:

• Global: Negative

• FII: Negative

• DII: Positive

• F&O: Neutral

• Sentiment: Neutral

• Trend: Positive

• FII long positions at 74 per cent vs 79 per cent the previous day

• Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) at 0.87 vs 1.02

• Nifty Bank PCR at 0.56 vs 0.72

• India VIX down 17.5 per cent at 12.75

He expects a higher zone for the headline index at 24,575-24,650 levels and a strong sell zone at 24,800-24,850 levels. 

For the banking index, he expects a higher zone at 51,950-52,175 and a strong sell zone at 52,275-52,425 levels.

What is positive in Budget 2024?

• Fiscal deficit target below 5 per cent
• Focus on creating employment opportunities for the youth
• Income tax relief for small taxpayers to boost consumption

What is negative in Budget 2024?

• Capital gains tax & STT hikes 
• Gold & property to offer higher tax benefits
• Buying gold more attractive
• No big mention of Viksit Bharat vision in five-year roadmap 

Budget & Market

• Both big events - election results & Budget - below expectations
• Market passed stress tests with full marks
• Reduced weakness and that too in shorter timeframe
• Recovery stronger than fall
• Market has witnessed the power of money
• Most people & funds under-invested, sitting on huge amounts of cash 
• Everyone wants to invest after Budget
• How can a big fall even materialise in such a situation?
• As long as retail flows are strong, market won't suffer a big fall

Post-Budget view on Dalal Street 

• No change in long-term view
• Opportunities to make lesser money slowly
• Index management will continue; some sectors to get a boost, others to face profit-booking
• Index to be supported by FMCG, IT, pharma stocks
• Metal and banking shares to remain weak
• In PSU basket, expensive stocks to weaken; oil & gas stocks, at attractive valuations, to continue to attract buying interest
• Nifty50 to spend time in the 24,000-25,000 range for now
• Strong support for index at 24,000-24,200
• Profit-booking expected at 24,800-25,000
• Nifty Bank to stay neutral to negative till ICICI Bank & Axis Bank announce their results
• FII index long positions continue to be high at 74 per cent 
• Market at risk of big FII outflows
• Liquidity to reduce in case of big block deals and IPOs 

ANIL SINGHVI MARKET STRATEGY   

For existing long positions:

• Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 24,300
• Nifty Bank intraday and closing stop loss at 51,300

For existing short positions:

• Nifty intraday and closing stop loss at 24,600

• Nifty Bank intraday stop loss at 52,050 and closing stop loss at 52,300

For new positions in Nifty50: 

• Aggressive traders can buy Nifty in the 24,250-24,365 range with a strict stop loss at 24,150 for targets of 24,400, 24,425, 24,475, 24,500, 24,525 and 24,575

• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty with a strict stop loss at 24,600 for targets of 24,435, 24,400, 24,350, 24,325, 24,300, 24,250, 24,200 and 24,150

For new positions in Nifty Bank: 

• Aggressive traders can sell Nifty Bank with a strict stop loss at 52,050 for targets of 51,500, 51,400, 51,350, 51,275, 51,150 and 51,000

• Aggressive traders can buy Nifty Bank in the 51,000-51,150 range with a strict stop loss at 50,900 for targets of 51,275, 51,350, 51,400, 51,500, 51,750, 51,850 and 51,950

Stocks in F&O ban

• Out of ban: Bandhan Bank, Chambal Fertilisers, HAL, Piramal Enterprises
• Already in ban: GNFC, India Cements, SAIL
• New in ban: None

Stock of the Day

Sell Bajaj Finance shares for targets of Rs 6,610, Rs 6,565 and Rs 6,435 with a stop loss at Rs 6,780 

• Results weak on all fronts

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