Anil Singhvi Market Strategy: Zee Business Managing Editor Anil Singhvi expects strong support for the headline Nifty50 index to emerge at 24,350-24,435 and higher levels at 24,585-24,660 till 11 am on Tuesday, July 23, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to make history by presenting her seventh Union Budget in a row. 

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For the Nifty Bank, he expects strong support at 51,750-51,875 levels and a higher range at 52,425-52,575 levels in the same timeframe. 

EDITOR'S TAKE | How market guru Anil Singhvi views Dalal Street today 

  • Monday's relative recovery, following previous session's sharp fall, has boosted investor confidence on Dalal Street
  • Nifty's close above 24,500 is a sign of strength 
  • FIIs have emerged net buyers of Rs 10,500 crore in cash & stock futures
  • Most investors have light positions ahead of Union Budget
  • Even slightly positive announcements in today's Budget can trigger a surge on Dalal Street
  • Brace for a big fall in case higher taxes are announced
  • Make a list of your favourite stocks with clear entry levels
  • Be brave and use opportunities to buy
  • Favourite sectors to bet on Budget theme: life insurance, logistics & FMCG
  • Buy in case of a good Budget; buy at key support levels in case of a bad Budget
  • Profit-booking expected in 24,800-25,000 range in case of a strong move
  • Nifty closing below 24,300 to be a negative signal for market
  • A close above 24,800 to lead to further buying
  • Nifty Bank closing below 52,000 to lead to more weakness
  • Strong moves expected if Nifty50 closes above 53,100 

What to expect in today's Budget?

  • Budget 2024 expected to be slightly populist
  • Those earning low incomes and service class individuals can expect some relief
  • Emphasis likely on reducing fiscal deficit
  • Focus expected to shift from industry & rural themes to individual taxpayers 
  • Government likely to increase allocations for its favourite sectors
  • Budget to contain economic reforms but fewer
  • Focus likely on job creation, with special emphasis to increase skilled labour roles
  • A mixed bag of announcements likely for Dalal Street
  • No increase expected in STT, LTCG, STCG taxes

Key things to watch out for 

  • Some relief for income tax assessees falling in the slab of Rs 8-10 lakh annual income under the new regime
  • Insurance-related benefit likely to be increased under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act
  • Among Section 80C benefits, a reduction or removal of GST on life insurance premium likely
  • Rural demand to remain in focus
  • Government to continue to push for Housing for All
  • A boost likely for logistics space
  • PLI schemes to continue without major changes
  • Solar power to take centrestage in power sector announcements
  • No possibility of bringing petroleum & gas under the ambit of GST yet 

10 big sectors & several shares to focus on

  • Budget likely to bring positive triggers for life insurers: LIC, HDFC Life, ICICI Pru, SBI Life to benefit
  • Solar power companies likely to get a boost: Borosil Renewable, Tata Power to benefit
  • No major announcements likely for fertiliser space: Profit-taking expected in Chambal Fertilisers, Coromandel, RCF, NFL
  • Focus on railway connectivity & logistics likely: Concor, Aegis Logistics, TVS Supply Chain to benefit
  • No big announcements likely for metal space
  • An increase in line with expectations likely in defence sector capex
  • Dixon and Amber to benefit from PLI schemes 
  • Paint, electrical wire, cable manufacturers to benefit from government's Housing for All push; Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Havells, Polycab to benefit
  • Cement and capital goods businesses to benefit from infrastructure drive: L&T, IRB Infra, NCC, UltraTech 
  • SEZ rules may be eased: A positive trigger for Jai Corp, RIIL, Adani Port 

Important levels to track in Nifty50 & Nifty Bank

  • In case today's Budget contains tepid announcements and turns out to be a non-event:

    • Support range for Nifty50 at 24,250-24,350; a higher range at 24,650-24,800
    • For banking index, support range at 51,750-51,850 and a higher range at 52,675-52,825
  • In case of a mild upmove in the market:
    • Strong support for Nifty50 at 24,000-24,200 followed by a higher range at 24,850-25,000 levels

Stock of the Day: Federal Bank

Buy Federal Bank futures with a stop loss at Rs 190 for targets of Rs 197, Rs 202 and Rs 205

  • KV Subramanian has been appointed as MD & CEO for three years

 

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