Global market outlook bright but China's clouds darken

Another day, another whoosh higher on Wall Street, but the double whammy of gloomy news from China on Monday is spoiling the party in Asia, and regional markets could struggle again on Tuesday.

Data on Monday showed that the world's second largest economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter while China's Evergrande Group (3333.HK), the world's most indebted property developer, said it lost an eye-watering $81 billion over 2021 and 2022.

Chinese stocks fell almost 1 per cent on Monday, their biggest loss in three weeks and dragging the broader MSCI Asia ex-Japan index into the red for the first time in six sessions.

No such issues on Wall Street as a near 1 per cent rally in the tech-centric Nasdaq lifted stocks while the U.S. earnings season goes up a gear this week. There was barely any change in the dollar or Treasury yields on Monday as investors brace for U.S. retail sales figures on Tuesday.

The shadow over local markets cast by China's second quarter GDP data on Monday is unlikely to lift completely by Tuesday, and the pressure on policymakers in Beijing to deliver more stimulus to shore up activity will surely increase.

Chinese GDP grew 0.8 per cent in April-June from the previous quarter, beating the consensus forecast of 0.5 per cent. But on a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 6.3 per cent, well below the 7.3 per cent forecast.

JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup trimmed China's growth forecast for 2023 to as low as 5 per cent, with Morgan Stanley also trimming its 2024 GDP forecast by 40 basis point to 4.5 per cent.

On the corporate front, Evergrande's losses were compounded by a rise in total liabilities. There is no quick fix, especially when growth momentum is decelerating. Real estate, once the source of extraordinary growth and investment, is a drag on the overall economy.

The Chinese mainland real estate index fell on Monday to its lowest level in nine years. It has lost 50 per cent of its value in the last three years.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said slower growth in China could spill over to other countries, but she does not expect the U.S. economy to enter recession.