Rupee may appreciate towards 79 vs dollar by March 2024: UBS Securities

The Indian Rupee is expected to strengthen against the US dollar on narrowing the current account deficit and may it appreciate around 79 by the second half of this fiscal, as per a brokerage report.

UBS Securities chief India economist Tanvee Gupta Jain in a note said that the domestic currency is likely to strengthen towards 79 by end-FY24 from an average of 82 to the US dollar in FY23.

The rupee depreciated 11 paise to close at 82.32 against the US currency on Monday as a strong American currency in the overseas market and firm crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee on Monday opened at 82.44 against the greenback and closed at 82.32, registering a fall of 11 paise over its previous close of 82.21.

Even as the rupee is likely to be volatile in the near term despite elevated risks from global financial stability, the economist expects the local unit may gain towards 79 against the greenback by year-end FY24, on a narrowing current account deficit (CAD) and weaker dollar volatility index.

CAD narrowed to 2.2 per cent of GDP or USD 18.2 billion in the third quarter and the Swiss brokerage UBS Securities sees it further improving to 1.2 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal from an estimated 2 per cent in the just concluded fiscal.

On the FY24 outlook Jain says even though the global financial market volatility has significantly clouded the growth outlook for all, the domestic economy will suffer limited spillover from the strains of the US/European banking sectors.

The ongoing global crisis has led to major repricing in global rates volatility and commodities, especially oil. The agency estimates crude price to average at USD 80/barrel in FY24 down from USD 95 a barrel in FY23.

Meanwhile, Pankaj Pandey, Head – Research, ICICI Securities in his comment said, the rupee is likely to trade in the range of 81.80-83.00 this month and expects it to may show a major resistance despite the recent surge in crude oil prices seen after the surprise cut in oil production by OPEC.

The UBS Securities economists also noted that the Reserve Bank will cap any significant rupee gains to rebuild buffers (forex reserves) to provide insurance against potential global spillover.

The better show in Q3 deficit was led by a narrowed goods trade deficit along with a record high services exports.