Dollar eases as traders weigh rate cut prospects

US dollar rate index news: The dollar was on the back foot on Friday, while the euro nursed steep losses as traders weighed data that showed inflation was easing, stoking expectations that interest rates had peaked and central banks would soon start cutting rates. The dollar index , which measures the US currency against six rivals, was 0.145 per cent lower at 103.30, after clocking its weakest monthly performance in a year in November, despite a 0.6 per cent jump overnight.

Data on Thursday showed US consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years.

The eagerly awaited personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3 per cent in October from a year ago, moderating from a three-month string of 3.4 per cent readings though still above the Fed's 2 per cent target.

"While the 3 per cent level remains too high to declare victory on inflation, it marks a new low for the series that will likely please the Fed and alleviate any pressure to implement further hikes," said Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets, North America, at Validus Risk Management.

"It remains to be seen if getting from 3 per cent to 2 per cent will be easy, or if inflation will remain sticky in 2024." Federal Reserve policymakers signalled on Thursday that the US central bank's interest rate hikes are likely over, but left the door open to further monetary policy tightening should progress on inflation stall.

Markets are pricing in a 97 per cent chance of the Fed standing pat in its December meeting, the CME FedWatch tool showed, with a 42 per cent chance of a rate cut in March next year compared with a 27 per cent chance last week.

Investor focus will now move to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday, with traders likely to scrutinize every word to sketch out rate outlook. "We expect Powell to reiterate the possibility of further tightening and dampen expectations of rate cuts, said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"Further loosening of financial conditions may undermine the FOMC’s efforts to tame inflation pressures. That said, we do not expect the FOMC to tighten policy again."

Over in Europe, data on Thursday showed Euro zone inflation tumbled more than expected for a third straight month in November, fuelling bets of early spring rate cuts despite the European Central Bank's explicit guidance.

The euro was up 0.13 per cent at $1.0902, having slipped 0.7 per cent on Thursday after the inflation data. The single currency is down 0.3 per cent for the week. Sterling was last at $1.2643, up 0.17 per cent on the day.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.31 per cent to 147.73 per dollar, on course for its third straight week of gains against the dollar, pulling it away from the near 33-year low of 151.92 it touched in the middle of November.

Former top Japanese finance ministry bureaucrat and senior central banker Toshiro Muto said on Thursday that chances were high for the Bank of Japan to scrap both negative interest rates and yield control as early as April when annual wage talks confirm the scope of pay hikes. The Australian dollar rose 0.20 per cent to $0.662, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.37 per cent to $0.618.