Gold gets stuck in the inflation debate; focus shifts to central bankers

In the one month since the start of the Russia-Ukraine fight, commodities have been on a rollercoaster ride and there are little reasons that it may end soon.

WATCH | Click on Zee Business Live TV Streaming Below:

Commodities rallied as Russia-Ukraine fighting and sanctions by western countries fuelled supply concerns. Commodities corrected with equal ease as Russia and Ukraine held talks to resolve the issue.

Commodities once again edged up as Russia-Ukraine talks failed to materialize while western countries increased economic pressure on Russia.

Madhavi Mehta – Associate Vice President - Commodity Research at Kotak Securities decodes how inflation is impacting the yellow metal:

Gold has also been impacted by volatility in commodities; however, the presence of pull and push factors have helped the price stabilize in a range and this trend may continue in the near term.

Mixed and sharp movement in commodities impacted inflation expectations and thereby gold. Gold moved towards all-time high earlier in the month as commodities rallied on supply risks.

Gold plunged as commodities corrected on the prospect of Russia-Ukraine cease-fire. Now that commodities have resumed their upward momentum, gold has also formed a bottom close to $1900/oz level but is struggling to build momentum.

While gold is getting affected by trend commodities at large, the impact has weakened as the focus has shifted to central banks.

The US Fed raised the key lending rate by 0.25% earlier this month, the first hike since December 2018, and projected six more rate hikes for this year.

Adding to it, Fed and some other Fed officials expressed willingness to raise interest rates aggressively, if required, to bring inflation under control.

Central banks are under pressure to act as inflation remains out of control while rising energy and commodity price has worsened the situation.

However, with increasing geopolitical risks and persisting virus concerns, central banks are looking at risks to economic activity as well.

Some central banks like the Fed and Bank of England have started raising lending rates while others like the Bank of Japan have maintained support for loose monetary policy amid persisting growth risks while China has expressed willingness to take more measures.

Central bank dilemma of getting inflation under control while keeping economic growth strong has fuelled uncertainty about future moves and this has bound gold in a range.

We are unlikely to move out of this dilemma soon which means that volatility may continue. Russia-Ukraine issue is not likely to get resolved soon and unless that happens commodities may remain high, and this may increase gold’s appeal as an inflation.

However, rising inflationary pressure may also force central banks to act soon and tightening expectations will challenge upside in the metal.

With one eye on geopolitical development, market players may now position for US non-farm payrolls data next week. Strong jobs numbers may show that US economy is strong enough to absorb a higher interest rates.

(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)