Market outlook: India's manufacturing PMI, global trends, foreign investors' move to drive markets in holiday-shortened week

The Indian share market participants will consider a number of factors in the coming week. The outlook for the market will be guided by the major domestic and global economic data as per analysts. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trends would also guide the market.

"The outlook for the market will be guided by the major domestic and global economic data. India Manufacturing PMI, India Foreign Exchange Reserves, China Industrial Production, US Industrial Production, UK Inflation Rate, US Initial Jobless Claims, BoE Interest Rate, US Manufacturing PMI," said Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services Ltd.

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. anticipates sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz. Key factors to watch will be the progress of monsoon and institutional flows, as per Meena.

Equity markets will remain closed on Monday on account of Bakri Id.

"This week, shortened by a holiday on Monday, will see participants looking to global markets, particularly the US, for cues in the absence of major events," Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

On the global front, data from China, movement in the dollar index, and US bond yields will be crucial, Meena said.

"Traders will be looking for signs of stabilisation to gauge the success of China’s accommodative policies. Lower-than-expected readings could signal the need for quicker policy support to meet the 5 per cent growth target," said Alex Volkov, Market Analyst at VT Markets.

Volkov added in April, Japan’s nominal wages grew by 2.1 per cent, indicating a potential wage-price spiral. Headline and core inflation rates have eased to 2.5 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively. 

"The market will look for signs of stable price growth around the 2 per cent target. Persistent wage growth feeding into inflation could prompt further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), impacting currency and market dynamics," said Volkov.

Last week, the BSE benchmark climbed 299.41 points or 0.39 per cent, while the Nifty advanced 175.45 points or 0.75 per cent.

The BSE Sensex hit its all-time high of 77,145.46 on June 13, while the Nifty reached its lifetime peak of 23,490.40 on June 14.

"Domestic markets would remain closed on Monday, while global investors would keep an eye on BoE (Bank of England) interest rate decision.

"We expect market uptrend to continue this week supported by positive macro trends, expectation of sustained government spending and policy continuity, healthy monsoon, and strong earnings," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

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