Russia-Ukraine war impact on stock market: Heightened risk premium can hurt equity valuations

Rising crude oil prices are likely to hurt the Indian economy stroking inflation amid war between Ukraine and Russia, the world's second largest producer and exporter of crude oil. However, it may also benefit the country with the global players looking for alternative source for commodities like steel and aluminum where Indian businesses can benefit.

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As per ICICI Securities, Oil prices would remain elevated (well above US$90/bbl) for several months, once the US imposes additional sanctions on Russia, including its ability to export oil & gas, following a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Commodities supply disruptions to the EU would generate greater demand for steel, engineering goods, etc., of which India is an alternate supplier, it says.

On earnings impact, Ask Investment Managers, an Assets and wealth management company, is of the view that the earnings impact of the crisis is low and crude would put pressure until the government passes the retail fuel prices.  

"Higher crude prices would impact the fiscal till the Government absorbs the increase. Once the retail fuel prices are fully passed on, it would reflect in inflation on the ground and could result in a small decline in consumption. On the positive side, sanctions may cause global players to seek another source for commodities like steel and aluminium where Indian businesses may benefit," says Ask Investment Managers.  

High oil prices would benefit the upstream oil companies and even downstream may see some positive inventory effect (transient), it says.  

Impact on Indian equities

"The geopolitical situation could cause further disruption in global supply chains and inflation should be expected to stay higher for longer. This could imply a stronger policy response and liquidity reductions and interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Higher interest rates would imply lower PE valuations for Indian equities," underlines Ask Investment Managers.  

It fears increased risk perception on higher volatility and valuations. This is expected in any situation like the present one. "Typical investor's response would be to get some money back home. This could result in some withdrawals from the funds and some selling pressure. Risk premium goes up in the interim and hurts equity valuations," says Ask Investment Managers

Besides, Russia being a part of emerging market basket and sanctions etc may result in redirecting of funds /withdrawal of funds on sharp underperformance. In case emerging market funds witness outflows on expected underperformance (China was having issues and now Russia also), Indian market could also witness selling pressures.

Sectors/ companies that could be impacted:

The impact could be limited, as per Ask Investment. Consumers could see longer input price pressures while commodity businesses may benefit on account of higher prices for longer. "However, we do expect this impact to reverse quickly as the situation normalizes, as it should over the next fortnight or so, "it added.  

"Oil prices at burdensome levels"

Meanwhile, Speaking about oil prices via-a-vis Russia-Ukraine crisis, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Julius Baer, says oil and natural gas prices have become the crisis’ fear barometer. "Oil prices are at economically burdensome levels already, and this usually means lower prices in the longer term. Any further spikes should translate into more downside, the uncertainty is more about the amplitude and time horizon," says Norbert Rücker on burgeoning oil prices.  

 
(Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advices expressed here in this article is solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.)