Russia-Ukraine crisis may hit Crude oil price further up by USD 10, expert opines; see intraday trading strategy

US West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices breached the USD 90 per barrel mark on Friday. The WTI crude was trading at USD 90.79 a barrel at around 1:15 pm (0745 GMT) and rose by 0.6 per cent having gained USD 2.01 on the previous day to settle above USD 90 for the first time since October 6, 2014, according to a Reuters report.

This is almost a week after Brent crude hit the USD 90 per barrel mark.

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The latest development comes on the back of several factors. While supply constraints were already there, the recent spike in prices in the US has been due to extreme cold wave which has swept across large swathes of the United States and threatened to further disrupt oil supplies.

While OPEC+ nations have already cleared their stand on oil production and have said that they will raise production by 4 lakh barrels in March, many of them have been unable to do so, Zee Business said in its report.

Moreover, US involvement in Russia-Ukraine crisis is only growing and if the tensions escalate, the supply will be further hit.

Libya has stopped exports from four ports. This is indicative of supply side problems across the world. This is at a time when the Coronavirus situation is improving and the demand for crude is expected to go up.

This is the reason why crude il prices have shot up.

Crude oil prices have seen a significant rally and how much will it further go up is a difficult thing to guess, Navneet Damani of Motilal Oswal said. The current momentum and fundamentals suggest that the stretch could even be between USD 92-93. He said that the short covering has still not gathered pace which could indicate the impact on the market, he added.

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सप्लाई पर सवाल, क्रूड में बड़ा उबाल
$90 के ऊपर तेज रफ्तार या कमजोर धार?
क्रूड में ट्रेडिंग का नया फॉर्मूला क्या ?
नेचुरल गैस में तेजी कितना नेचुरल?
जीरे में और बढ़ेगी तेजी?

देखिए #CommodityLIVE मृत्युंजय कुमार झा के साथ..@MrituenjayZee | #CrudeOil https://t.co/iXtv37vKrD

— Zee Business (@ZeeBusiness) February 4, 2022

The reversal on Thursday is suggesting an upward trend, he further said.

On MCX, the 18 February Crude oil futures were trading at Rs 6846 per barrel around 3:55 pm and were up over 3 per cent or by Rs 205 from the Thursday closing price.

Damani said that he had previously given targets of Rs 6700-6800 and which have already been achieved. The next target price is Rs 6900 where some meaning ful resistance will be seen, he concluded.

Meanwhile, Kunal Shah of Nirmal Bang said that the prices may go up further by USD 10 if US imposes sanctions of Russia. He said that the Russia-Ukraine crisis is building a premium on crude prices. He said that the Geo-political tension is playing a bigger role than the US weather.

He said that the upside looks prominent till Monday-Tuesday, Shah said from the trading perspective.

As for long term, he said that the prices could come down as supply is expected to increase and weather situation would improve going forward.

Jigar Trivedi of Anand Rathi recommends initiating a long position at levels around 6770 in the intraday trade today. The stop loss is 6730. He puts the price target at Rs 6850.