Sensex expected to rise 10% to 68,500 by December: Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley expects India's benchmark stock index Sensex, in the base case scenario, to be around 68,500 by the end of 2023, implying a 10 per cent increase from its present levels.

This is assumed taking into account there is no major rise in commodity prices -- especially oil and fertilizer, stable domestic growth, the US not slipping into a recession, and supportive government policies in India.

The global investment bank expects the benchmark index to trade at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20.5 times compared to a 25-year average of 20 times.

"The premium over the historical average reflects greater confidence in medium-term growth," said Morgan Stanley in its report titled 'India Equity Strategy Playbook: India's Transformation and Its Implications', prepared by Ridham Desai, Sheela Rathi, and Nayant Parekh.

The equity market continues to be attractive despite relatively high valuations -- largely due to strong earnings growth prospects and a swelling bid from both domestic and foreign investors.

At present, Sensex is trading at 62,629 points. So far this year and over the past year, it rose 2.4 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively.