Market Outlook: A lifetime high during market consolidation is good news, says Valentis Advisors MD Jyotivardhan Jaipuria

Market Outlook: In a special segment aired on Zee Business, Founder and MD of Valentis Advisors Pvt Ltd, Jyotivardhan Jaipuria gave an in-depth market outlook after the Nifty Bank made a lifetime high on Friday, November 25. 

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इकोनॉमी को लेकर चिंता, अगले साल US, यूरोप में मंदी संभव, अगले साल बाजार में 10% के ऊपर रिटर्न मिलने की उम्मीद : ज्योतिवर्धन जयपुरिया, #ValentisAdvisors

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Jaipuria said that the Indian market is consolidating and during this time it has made a lifetime high which is a good thing. “In the last one year the market has given only 5 per cent returns, and we can see the market is consolidating. We are seeing a lifetime high in consolidation. Many times, there is euphoria during the lifetime high which cannot be felt this time and it is a good thing as if there is euphoria, valuations are high and there is a pressure on profit booking in lifetime high, but this time it is not the case,” he said.

Jaipuria said that India, Brazil and Indonesia market have performed well but during the global rally the market underperformed. “In 2022, three markets have performed well– Brazil, Indonesia and India, but in the past 4-5 weeks, there has been a rally globally, in this rally all these three markets are underperforming,” he added.

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He also said that if the rally continues Indian markets could underperform, but taking a look at 2-3 years outlook, he said that Indian markets will continue to outperform.

Explaining the factors contributing towards a bullish market Jaipuria said, “First factor is that the Indian economy will be the fastest growing economy. India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be around 7 per cent and there will be no larger economy close to it. Second factor will be India’s weight in indices which has increased; two years ago, it was 8 per cent and from that it has gone up to 14-15 per cent. India will also get inflows through Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) allocation in emerging markets for which India has become the second largest market. And third, the earnings flow should be 12-15 per cent in the next 3-4 years.”

Taking domestic retail investors into consideration Jaipuria said that active participation by domestic retail investors building trust among FIIs, saying, “Every month through Systematic Investment Planning (SIP), there is Rs 12,000 crore inflow due to domestic retail investors. This has built trust amongst FIIs, who think that the Indian retailers will invest Rs 12,000 crore i.e is around USD 20 million each year, which has led to stability in FII buying and selling.”

Getting a closer look on the global markets Jaipuria said diet local, avoid global, “Global economy may see a recession or uncertainty especially Europe, US next year. Thus, 'buy local, avoid global' i.e focus should be on India’s local industries that are catering to India's local demand.”

Recommending stocks to focus on he said, “Firstly, banks should be in focus. Second recommendation is domestic infrastructure related stocks i.e cement. Cement has not done well in the past one year due to raw material pressure but the Cement stocks can rally as prices can increase. Capital goods is the third recommendation, as capital goods shares are doing well and demand will increase in the next 3-4 years.”

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